CJ Cheiljedang Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

097950 Stock   263,500  9,500  3.48%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CJ Cheiljedang on the next trading day is expected to be 270,454 with a mean absolute deviation of 5,822 and the sum of the absolute errors of 355,121. 097950 Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CJ Cheiljedang stock prices and determine the direction of CJ Cheiljedang's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CJ Cheiljedang's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for CJ Cheiljedang is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of CJ Cheiljedang value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

CJ Cheiljedang Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CJ Cheiljedang on the next trading day is expected to be 270,454 with a mean absolute deviation of 5,822, mean absolute percentage error of 57,468,132, and the sum of the absolute errors of 355,121.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 097950 Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CJ Cheiljedang's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CJ Cheiljedang Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CJ CheiljedangCJ Cheiljedang Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

CJ Cheiljedang Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CJ Cheiljedang's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CJ Cheiljedang's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 270,452 and 270,456, respectively. We have considered CJ Cheiljedang's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
263,500
270,452
Downside
270,454
Expected Value
270,456
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CJ Cheiljedang stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CJ Cheiljedang stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria135.9772
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation5821.6516
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.021
SAESum of the absolute errors355120.7466
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of CJ Cheiljedang. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict CJ Cheiljedang. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for CJ Cheiljedang

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CJ Cheiljedang. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
263,498263,500263,502
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
228,577228,579289,850
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
260,638272,250283,862
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CJ Cheiljedang. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CJ Cheiljedang's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CJ Cheiljedang's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in CJ Cheiljedang.

Other Forecasting Options for CJ Cheiljedang

For every potential investor in 097950, whether a beginner or expert, CJ Cheiljedang's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 097950 Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 097950. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CJ Cheiljedang's price trends.

CJ Cheiljedang Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CJ Cheiljedang stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CJ Cheiljedang could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CJ Cheiljedang by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CJ Cheiljedang Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CJ Cheiljedang's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CJ Cheiljedang's current price.

CJ Cheiljedang Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CJ Cheiljedang stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CJ Cheiljedang shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CJ Cheiljedang stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CJ Cheiljedang entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CJ Cheiljedang Risk Indicators

The analysis of CJ Cheiljedang's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CJ Cheiljedang's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 097950 stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with CJ Cheiljedang

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if CJ Cheiljedang position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in CJ Cheiljedang will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with 097950 Stock

  0.68006400 Samsung SDIPairCorr

Moving against 097950 Stock

  0.91010130 Korea ZincPairCorr
  0.71003240 Taekwang IndPairCorr
  0.55003920 Namyang DairyPairCorr
  0.35373220 LG Energy SolutionPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to CJ Cheiljedang could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace CJ Cheiljedang when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back CJ Cheiljedang - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling CJ Cheiljedang to buy it.
The correlation of CJ Cheiljedang is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as CJ Cheiljedang moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if CJ Cheiljedang moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for CJ Cheiljedang can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in 097950 Stock

CJ Cheiljedang financial ratios help investors to determine whether 097950 Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 097950 with respect to the benefits of owning CJ Cheiljedang security.