Covivio Hotels Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| 0IS8 Stock | 23.20 0.20 0.87% |
Covivio Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Covivio Hotels' share price is approaching 49. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Covivio Hotels, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.16) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.005 |
Using Covivio Hotels hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Covivio Hotels SCA from the perspective of Covivio Hotels response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Covivio Hotels SCA on the next trading day is expected to be 23.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.65. Covivio Hotels after-hype prediction price | EUR 23.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Covivio |
Covivio Hotels Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Covivio price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Covivio using various technical indicators. When you analyze Covivio charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Covivio Hotels Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Covivio Hotels SCA on the next trading day is expected to be 23.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62, mean absolute percentage error of 0.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Covivio Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Covivio Hotels' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Covivio Hotels Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Covivio Hotels | Covivio Hotels Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Covivio Hotels Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Covivio Hotels' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Covivio Hotels' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.31 and 25.92, respectively. We have considered Covivio Hotels' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Covivio Hotels stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Covivio Hotels stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7729 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6172 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0258 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.6477 |
Predictive Modules for Covivio Hotels
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Covivio Hotels SCA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Covivio Hotels After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Covivio Hotels at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Covivio Hotels or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Covivio Hotels, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Covivio Hotels Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Covivio Hotels' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Covivio Hotels' historical news coverage. Covivio Hotels' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.86 and 25.54, respectively. We have considered Covivio Hotels' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Covivio Hotels is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Covivio Hotels SCA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Covivio Hotels Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Covivio Hotels is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Covivio Hotels backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Covivio Hotels, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 2.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
23.20 | 23.20 | 0.00 |
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Covivio Hotels Hype Timeline
Covivio Hotels SCA is presently traded for 23.20on London Exchange of UK. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Covivio is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on Covivio Hotels is about 1916.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.20. About 61.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees . The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Covivio Hotels SCA had 1088:1077 split on the 21st of May 2021. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Covivio Hotels to cross-verify your projections.Covivio Hotels Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Covivio Hotels' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Covivio Hotels' future price movements. Getting to know how Covivio Hotels' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Covivio Hotels may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 0HGR | Applied Industrial Technologies | 1.33 | 4 per month | 1.64 | 0.03 | 3.24 | (2.36) | 7.61 | |
| 0KGH | Paycom Software | 0.07 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.94 | (3.55) | 13.84 | |
| 0VL8 | Toronto Dominion Bank | 0.00 | 5 per month | 0.65 | 0.34 | 2.69 | (1.07) | 7.68 | |
| 0LY1 | WisdomTree Investments | 0.30 | 3 per month | 1.24 | 0.14 | 3.65 | (2.38) | 7.69 | |
| 0KTI | Enbridge | (0.53) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.37 | (1.91) | 5.19 | |
| 0LDR | Teladoc Health | (0.09) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 4.97 | (4.83) | 17.48 | |
| 0GYZ | Nordic Mining ASA | (0.24) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.72 | (4.71) | 33.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for Covivio Hotels
For every potential investor in Covivio, whether a beginner or expert, Covivio Hotels' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Covivio Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Covivio. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Covivio Hotels' price trends.Covivio Hotels Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Covivio Hotels stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Covivio Hotels could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Covivio Hotels by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Covivio Hotels Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Covivio Hotels stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Covivio Hotels shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Covivio Hotels stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Covivio Hotels SCA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Covivio Hotels Risk Indicators
The analysis of Covivio Hotels' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Covivio Hotels' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting covivio stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.0 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.76 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.74 | |||
| Variance | 7.53 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.63 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.14) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Covivio Hotels
The number of cover stories for Covivio Hotels depends on current market conditions and Covivio Hotels' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Covivio Hotels is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Covivio Hotels' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Covivio Hotels Short Properties
Covivio Hotels' future price predictability will typically decrease when Covivio Hotels' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Covivio Hotels SCA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Covivio Hotels' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Covivio Hotels' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividends Paid | 34.5 M | |
| Shares Float | 56 M |
Additional Tools for Covivio Stock Analysis
When running Covivio Hotels' price analysis, check to measure Covivio Hotels' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Covivio Hotels is operating at the current time. Most of Covivio Hotels' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Covivio Hotels' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Covivio Hotels' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Covivio Hotels to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.