Allan Gray Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

0P0000IQZV   590.29  18.22  2.99%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Allan Gray Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 608.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 214.83. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Allan Gray's fund prices and determine the direction of Allan Gray Equity's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
Allan Gray polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Allan Gray Equity as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Allan Gray Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Allan Gray Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 608.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.52, mean absolute percentage error of 19.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 214.83.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allan Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allan Gray's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Allan Gray Fund Forecast Pattern

Allan Gray Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Allan Gray's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allan Gray's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 607.47 and 608.70, respectively. We have considered Allan Gray's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
590.29
607.47
Downside
608.08
Expected Value
608.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allan Gray fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allan Gray fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.0645
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.5218
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0059
SAESum of the absolute errors214.8287
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Allan Gray historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Allan Gray

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allan Gray Equity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Allan Gray

For every potential investor in Allan, whether a beginner or expert, Allan Gray's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allan Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allan Gray's price trends.

Allan Gray Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allan Gray fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allan Gray could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allan Gray by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Allan Gray Equity Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Allan Gray's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Allan Gray's current price.

Allan Gray Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allan Gray fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allan Gray shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allan Gray fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Allan Gray Equity entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Allan Gray Risk Indicators

The analysis of Allan Gray's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allan Gray's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allan fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Bollinger Bands
Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon
Portfolio Center
All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios
Equity Valuation
Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data
Instant Ratings
Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance