Namchow Chemical Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

1702 Stock  TWD 37.35  0.65  1.71%   
Namchow Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Namchow Chemical's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 1

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Namchow Chemical's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Namchow Chemical and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Namchow Chemical's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Namchow Chemical Industrial, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Namchow Chemical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Namchow Chemical Industrial from the perspective of Namchow Chemical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Namchow Chemical Industrial on the next trading day is expected to be 37.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.50.

Namchow Chemical after-hype prediction price

    
  TWD 37.35  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Namchow Chemical to cross-verify your projections.

Namchow Chemical Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Namchow price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Namchow using various technical indicators. When you analyze Namchow charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Namchow Chemical price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Namchow Chemical Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Namchow Chemical Industrial on the next trading day is expected to be 37.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48, mean absolute percentage error of 0.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.50.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Namchow Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Namchow Chemical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Namchow Chemical Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Namchow Chemical  Namchow Chemical Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Namchow Chemical Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Namchow Chemical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Namchow Chemical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.92 and 38.53, respectively. We have considered Namchow Chemical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
37.35
37.73
Expected Value
38.53
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Namchow Chemical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Namchow Chemical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.8192
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4758
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0124
SAESum of the absolute errors29.5022
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Namchow Chemical Industrial historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Namchow Chemical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Namchow Chemical Ind. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
36.5537.3538.15
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
34.4635.2641.09
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
24.5737.5738.22
Details

Namchow Chemical After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Namchow Chemical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Namchow Chemical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Namchow Chemical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Namchow Chemical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Namchow Chemical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Namchow Chemical's historical news coverage. Namchow Chemical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 36.55 and 38.15, respectively. We have considered Namchow Chemical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
37.35
37.35
After-hype Price
38.15
Upside
Namchow Chemical is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Namchow Chemical Ind is based on 3 months time horizon.

Namchow Chemical Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Namchow Chemical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Namchow Chemical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Namchow Chemical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.03 
0.80
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
37.35
37.35
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Namchow Chemical Hype Timeline

Namchow Chemical Ind is presently traded for 37.35on Taiwan Stock Exchange of Taiwan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Namchow is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Namchow Chemical is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.35. About 56.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees . The company has Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.18. In the past many companies with similar price-to-book ratios have beat the market. Namchow Chemical Ind last dividend was issued on the 2nd of June 2022. The entity had 102:100 split on the 13th of August 2004. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Namchow Chemical to cross-verify your projections.

Namchow Chemical Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Namchow Chemical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Namchow Chemical's future price movements. Getting to know how Namchow Chemical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Namchow Chemical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
1203Ve Wong Corp 0.00 0 per month 0.73 (0.03) 1.14 (0.88) 5.66 
1218Taisun Enterprise Co 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.09) 0.83 (0.82) 2.20 
4205Chung Hwa Food 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.42) 0.60 (0.71) 1.61 
1264Tehmag Foods 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.26) 0.36 (0.70) 2.48 
1201Wei Chuan Foods 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.16) 1.04 (1.03) 3.47 
1225Formosa Oilseed Processing 0.00 0 per month 0.73  0.04  1.49 (1.41) 11.30 
6790Yuen Foong Yu 0.00 0 per month 0.37  0.09  1.22 (0.79) 2.81 
4137Chlitina Holding 0.00 0 per month 0.83  0.13  2.44 (1.42) 4.77 
4128Microbio Co 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.1) 3.50 (2.91) 13.66 
8436TCI Co 0.00 0 per month 1.95  0.03  4.51 (3.20) 9.46 

Other Forecasting Options for Namchow Chemical

For every potential investor in Namchow, whether a beginner or expert, Namchow Chemical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Namchow Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Namchow. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Namchow Chemical's price trends.

Namchow Chemical Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Namchow Chemical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Namchow Chemical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Namchow Chemical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Namchow Chemical Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Namchow Chemical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Namchow Chemical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Namchow Chemical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Namchow Chemical Industrial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Namchow Chemical Risk Indicators

The analysis of Namchow Chemical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Namchow Chemical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting namchow stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Namchow Chemical

The number of cover stories for Namchow Chemical depends on current market conditions and Namchow Chemical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Namchow Chemical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Namchow Chemical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for Namchow Stock Analysis

When running Namchow Chemical's price analysis, check to measure Namchow Chemical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Namchow Chemical is operating at the current time. Most of Namchow Chemical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Namchow Chemical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Namchow Chemical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Namchow Chemical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.