MACOM Technology Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 1MA Stock | EUR 182.00 7.00 3.70% |
MACOM Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of MACOM Technology's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 6th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of MACOM Technology's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.544 | Wall Street Target Price 70.43 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.301 |
Using MACOM Technology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MACOM Technology Solutions from the perspective of MACOM Technology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MACOM Technology Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 182.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 224.00. MACOM Technology after-hype prediction price | EUR 183.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
MACOM |
MACOM Technology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MACOM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MACOM using various technical indicators. When you analyze MACOM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MACOM Technology Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MACOM Technology Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 182.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.73, mean absolute percentage error of 37.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 224.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MACOM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MACOM Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MACOM Technology Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MACOM Technology | MACOM Technology Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
MACOM Technology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MACOM Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MACOM Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 177.96 and 186.04, respectively. We have considered MACOM Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MACOM Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MACOM Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.8961 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.6333 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.7333 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0232 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 224.0 |
Predictive Modules for MACOM Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MACOM Technology Sol. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MACOM Technology After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MACOM Technology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MACOM Technology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MACOM Technology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MACOM Technology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MACOM Technology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MACOM Technology's historical news coverage. MACOM Technology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 179.72 and 187.88, respectively. We have considered MACOM Technology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MACOM Technology is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MACOM Technology Sol is based on 3 months time horizon.
MACOM Technology Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MACOM Technology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MACOM Technology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MACOM Technology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.37 | 4.04 | 1.48 | 0.04 | 10 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
182.00 | 183.80 | 0.99 |
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MACOM Technology Hype Timeline
MACOM Technology Sol is presently traded for 182.00on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.48, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. MACOM is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 183.8 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 101.0%. The price rise on the next news is forecasted to be 0.99%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.37%. The volatility of related hype on MACOM Technology is about 3990.12%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 181.96. The company reported the revenue of 967.26 M. Net Loss for the year was (54.21 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 529 M. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MACOM Technology to cross-verify your projections.MACOM Technology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MACOM Technology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MACOM Technology's future price movements. Getting to know how MACOM Technology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MACOM Technology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PUP | Public Storage | (2.20) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.50 | (2.76) | 6.91 | |
| HYI | Hyrican Informationssysteme Aktiengesellschaft | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 0.00 | (2.17) | 15.11 | |
| FOO | Salesforce | 1.80 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 2.76 | (4.41) | 14.31 | |
| D6H | DATAGROUP SE | 0.1 | 6 per month | 0.74 | 0.08 | 2.16 | (1.38) | 8.70 | |
| 6E6 | ATON GREEN STORAGE | (0.06) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 8.22 | (4.32) | 22.69 | |
| MNL | Gruppo Mutuionline SpA | (0.20) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 2.77 | (2.53) | 9.56 | |
| MNL | MUTUIONLINE | (0.25) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.33) | 1.87 | (2.68) | 8.94 | |
| WN6 | CarsalesCom | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 2.11 | (3.00) | 6.90 |
Other Forecasting Options for MACOM Technology
For every potential investor in MACOM, whether a beginner or expert, MACOM Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MACOM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MACOM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MACOM Technology's price trends.MACOM Technology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MACOM Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MACOM Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MACOM Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MACOM Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MACOM Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MACOM Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MACOM Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MACOM Technology Solutions entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MACOM Technology Risk Indicators
The analysis of MACOM Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MACOM Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting macom stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.56 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.11 | |||
| Variance | 16.87 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.74 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MACOM Technology
The number of cover stories for MACOM Technology depends on current market conditions and MACOM Technology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MACOM Technology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MACOM Technology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MACOM Technology to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.