Bodycote PLC Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

21T Stock  EUR 8.75  0.25  2.94%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Bodycote PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 8.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.69. Bodycote Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bodycote PLC's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 24th of January 2026 the value of rsi of Bodycote PLC's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Bodycote PLC's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Bodycote PLC and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Bodycote PLC's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Bodycote PLC, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Bodycote PLC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bodycote PLC from the perspective of Bodycote PLC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Bodycote PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 8.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.69.

Bodycote PLC after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 8.75  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bodycote PLC to cross-verify your projections.

Bodycote PLC Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Bodycote price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bodycote using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bodycote charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Bodycote PLC price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Bodycote PLC Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Bodycote PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 8.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.69.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bodycote Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bodycote PLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bodycote PLC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Bodycote PLCBodycote PLC Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Bodycote PLC Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bodycote PLC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bodycote PLC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.37 and 11.00, respectively. We have considered Bodycote PLC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.75
8.69
Expected Value
11.00
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bodycote PLC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bodycote PLC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.7186
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2244
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0303
SAESum of the absolute errors13.6897
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Bodycote PLC historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Bodycote PLC

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bodycote PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6.448.7511.06
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.528.8311.14
Details

Bodycote PLC After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Bodycote PLC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bodycote PLC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bodycote PLC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Bodycote PLC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Bodycote PLC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bodycote PLC's historical news coverage. Bodycote PLC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.44 and 11.06, respectively. We have considered Bodycote PLC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
8.75
8.75
After-hype Price
11.06
Upside
Bodycote PLC is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bodycote PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.

Bodycote PLC Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bodycote PLC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bodycote PLC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bodycote PLC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.25 
2.31
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
8.75
8.75
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Bodycote PLC Hype Timeline

Bodycote PLC is presently traded for 8.75on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Bodycote is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bodycote PLC is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.75. About 77.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds. The company has Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.54. In the past many companies with similar price-to-book ratios have beat the market. Bodycote PLC last dividend was issued on the 6th of October 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bodycote PLC to cross-verify your projections.

Bodycote PLC Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Bodycote PLC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bodycote PLC's future price movements. Getting to know how Bodycote PLC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bodycote PLC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Bodycote PLC

For every potential investor in Bodycote, whether a beginner or expert, Bodycote PLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bodycote Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bodycote. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bodycote PLC's price trends.

Bodycote PLC Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bodycote PLC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bodycote PLC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bodycote PLC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bodycote PLC Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bodycote PLC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bodycote PLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bodycote PLC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bodycote PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bodycote PLC Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bodycote PLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bodycote PLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bodycote stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Bodycote PLC

The number of cover stories for Bodycote PLC depends on current market conditions and Bodycote PLC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bodycote PLC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bodycote PLC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Bodycote Stock

Bodycote PLC financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bodycote Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bodycote with respect to the benefits of owning Bodycote PLC security.