Microelectronics Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

2314 Stock  TWD 30.75  0.25  0.82%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Microelectronics Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 31.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.15. Microelectronics Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Microelectronics Technology is based on a synthetically constructed Microelectronicsdaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Microelectronics 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Microelectronics Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 31.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86, mean absolute percentage error of 2.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.15.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Microelectronics Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Microelectronics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Microelectronics Stock Forecast Pattern

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Microelectronics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Microelectronics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Microelectronics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.12 and 34.38, respectively. We have considered Microelectronics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
30.75
31.25
Expected Value
34.38
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Microelectronics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Microelectronics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria82.2126
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.4854
MADMean absolute deviation0.8573
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0265
SAESum of the absolute errors35.1475
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Microelectronics Tec 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Microelectronics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Microelectronics Tec. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
27.6230.7533.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
28.0231.1534.28
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
30.4330.6730.90
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Microelectronics

For every potential investor in Microelectronics, whether a beginner or expert, Microelectronics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Microelectronics Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Microelectronics. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Microelectronics' price trends.

Microelectronics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Microelectronics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Microelectronics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Microelectronics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Microelectronics Tec Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Microelectronics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Microelectronics' current price.

Microelectronics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Microelectronics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Microelectronics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Microelectronics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Microelectronics Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Microelectronics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Microelectronics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Microelectronics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting microelectronics stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Microelectronics Stock Analysis

When running Microelectronics' price analysis, check to measure Microelectronics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microelectronics is operating at the current time. Most of Microelectronics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microelectronics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microelectronics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microelectronics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.