Mega Financial Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

2886 Stock  TWD 40.20  0.55  1.39%   
The Simple Regression output for Mega Financial Holding is derived from daily price data across the evaluation window. The error pattern reveals whether the model tracked prices consistently or diverged during volatile sessions. Parameters are re-estimated as new trading sessions are recorded, keeping the forecast current. The Simple Regression model projects Mega Financial at 39.43 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. Mega Financial's Simple Regression forecast is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Simple regression fits a straight line through Mega Financial price points using a single independent variable (time). The line is defined by Y = intercept + slope * X, where the slope captures the average rate of price change and the intercept represents the baseline price level.

Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 9th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Simple Regression model forecasts Mega Financial at 39.43 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 27.46 .
This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Mega Financial's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

This forecast for Mega Financial frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The current forecast range spans downside near 38.45 and upside near 40.40. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Market Value
40.20
39.43
Expected Value
40.40

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Simple Regression model's error metrics for Mega Financial stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.9531
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4501
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0114
SAESum of the absolute errors27.4582
A positive slope indicates an upward price trend over the selected period; a negative slope indicates a downward trend. The R-squared value measures how well the linear model fits Mega Financial Holding price history — values near 1.0 indicate a strong linear trend, while low values suggest that price movement is not well explained by a simple time-based trend.

Other Forecasting Options for Mega Financial

Volatility clustering is a well-documented feature of Mega Financial Stock price data where periods of large moves tend to follow other large moves. When Mega Financial's RSI reaches extreme levels, it often precedes a short-term price correction or consolidation. Seasonal patterns in Mega Financial's returns tend to persist when driven by structural factors like earnings calendars or index rebalancing.

Mega Financial Related Equities

These related stocks within the Financials space give benchmarks for judging Mega Financial's results, margins, and growth trend. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mega Financial Market Strength Events

Accumulation/Distribution and Balance of Power for Mega Financial reveal whether buying or selling pressure dominates recent sessions. Balance of Power trending positive indicates that buyers are consistently closing Mega Financial near session highs. These signals help explain whether price direction and session structure are moving together for Mega Financial.

Mega Financial Risk Indicators

Risk indicator analysis for Mega Financial quantifies how much price variability the stock has exhibited over the measurement window. Downside variance exceeding total variance indicates that negative moves in Mega Financial have been larger or more frequent than positive ones. Mean deviation provides a more intuitive measure of typical price fluctuation than variance because it stays in the same units as Mega Financial's price.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Additional Tools for Mega Financial Stock Analysis