Mega Financial Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| 2886 Stock | TWD 39.65 0.10 0.25% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing output for Mega Financial Holding is derived from daily price data across the evaluation window. The error pattern reveals whether the model tracked prices consistently or diverged during volatile sessions. Parameters are re-estimated as new trading sessions are recorded, keeping the forecast current. The Triple Exponential Smoothing model projects Mega Financial at 39.60 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. Mega Financial's Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing model forecasts Mega Financial at 39.60 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 16.95 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Mega Financial's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Mega Financial | Mega Financial Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This forecast for Mega Financial frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The current forecast range spans downside near 38.63 and upside near 40.57. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Triple Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for Mega Financial stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0551 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2873 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0073 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.95 |
Other Forecasting Options for Mega Financial
Volatility clustering is a well-documented feature of Mega Financial Stock price data where periods of large moves tend to follow other large moves. When Mega Financial's RSI reaches extreme levels, it often precedes a short-term price correction or consolidation. Seasonal patterns in Mega Financial's returns tend to persist when driven by structural factors like earnings calendars or index rebalancing.Mega Financial Related Equities
These related stocks within the Financials space give benchmarks for judging Mega Financial's results, margins, and growth trend. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mega Financial Market Strength Events
Accumulation/Distribution and Balance of Power for Mega Financial reveal whether buying or selling pressure dominates recent sessions. Balance of Power trending positive indicates that buyers are consistently closing Mega Financial near session highs. These signals help explain whether price direction and session structure are moving together for Mega Financial.
| Accumulation Distribution | 300291.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.1667 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 39.7 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 39.68 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.1 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.9 |
Mega Financial Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Mega Financial quantifies how much price variability the stock has exhibited over the measurement window. Downside variance exceeding total variance indicates that negative moves in Mega Financial have been larger or more frequent than positive ones. Mean deviation provides a more intuitive measure of typical price fluctuation than variance because it stays in the same units as Mega Financial's price.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6464 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9208 | |||
| Variance | 0.8479 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Additional Tools for Mega Financial Stock Analysis
Content SyndicationQuickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portalStock TickersUse high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websitesCommodity ChannelUse Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentumPortfolio AnalyzerPortfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engineTechnical AnalysisCheck basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market dataPortfolio ProphetUse AI to generate optimal portfolios and find investment opportunitiesCompanies DirectoryEvaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentalsPortfolio DiagnosticsUse generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdingsCommodity DirectoryFind actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges