Avalue Technology Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

3479 Stock  TWD 100.50  4.90  5.13%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Avalue Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 100.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 88.00. Avalue Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A two period moving average forecast for Avalue Technology is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Avalue Technology Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Avalue Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 100.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.49, mean absolute percentage error of 4.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 88.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Avalue Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Avalue Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Avalue Technology Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Avalue TechnologyAvalue Technology Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Avalue Technology Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Avalue Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Avalue Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 98.71 and 102.29, respectively. We have considered Avalue Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
100.50
100.50
Expected Value
102.29
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Avalue Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Avalue Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.9039
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1271
MADMean absolute deviation1.4915
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.014
SAESum of the absolute errors88.0
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Avalue Technology price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Avalue Technology. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Avalue Technology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avalue Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
98.71100.50102.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
90.45102.42104.22
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
92.7697.56102.36
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Avalue Technology

For every potential investor in Avalue, whether a beginner or expert, Avalue Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Avalue Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Avalue. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Avalue Technology's price trends.

Avalue Technology Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Avalue Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Avalue Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Avalue Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Avalue Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Avalue Technology's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Avalue Technology's current price.

Avalue Technology Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Avalue Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Avalue Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Avalue Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Avalue Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Avalue Technology Risk Indicators

The analysis of Avalue Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Avalue Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting avalue stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Avalue Technology

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Avalue Technology position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Avalue Technology will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Avalue Stock

  0.885289 InnoDiskPairCorr
  0.756756 VIA LabsPairCorr

Moving against Avalue Stock

  0.826669 Wiwynn CorpPairCorr
  0.783552 Tung Thih ElectronicPairCorr
  0.762382 Quanta ComputerPairCorr
  0.696763 Green World Fintech SplitPairCorr
  0.690050 YuantaP shares TaiwanPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Avalue Technology could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Avalue Technology when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Avalue Technology - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Avalue Technology to buy it.
The correlation of Avalue Technology is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Avalue Technology moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Avalue Technology moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Avalue Technology can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Avalue Stock Analysis

When running Avalue Technology's price analysis, check to measure Avalue Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Avalue Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Avalue Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Avalue Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Avalue Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Avalue Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.