Macroblock Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

3527 Stock  TWD 72.70  0.70  0.97%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Macroblock on the next trading day is expected to be 74.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.49. Macroblock Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Macroblock is based on a synthetically constructed Macroblockdaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Macroblock 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Macroblock on the next trading day is expected to be 74.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.04, mean absolute percentage error of 6.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.49.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Macroblock Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Macroblock's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Macroblock Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest MacroblockMacroblock Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Macroblock Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Macroblock's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Macroblock's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 73.07 and 75.61, respectively. We have considered Macroblock's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
72.70
74.34
Expected Value
75.61
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Macroblock stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Macroblock stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria83.2127
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.8945
MADMean absolute deviation2.0362
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0272
SAESum of the absolute errors83.485
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Macroblock 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Macroblock

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Macroblock. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
70.7372.0073.27
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
66.4167.6879.20
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
72.4973.5574.61
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Macroblock

For every potential investor in Macroblock, whether a beginner or expert, Macroblock's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Macroblock Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Macroblock. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Macroblock's price trends.

Macroblock Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Macroblock stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Macroblock could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Macroblock by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Macroblock Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Macroblock's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Macroblock's current price.

Macroblock Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Macroblock stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Macroblock shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Macroblock stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Macroblock entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Macroblock Risk Indicators

The analysis of Macroblock's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Macroblock's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting macroblock stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Macroblock

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Macroblock position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Macroblock will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Macroblock Stock

  0.752303 United MicroelectronicsPairCorr
  0.763034 Novatek MicroelectronicsPairCorr

Moving against Macroblock Stock

  0.313443 Global Unichip CorpPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Macroblock could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Macroblock when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Macroblock - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Macroblock to buy it.
The correlation of Macroblock is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Macroblock moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Macroblock moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Macroblock can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Macroblock Stock Analysis

When running Macroblock's price analysis, check to measure Macroblock's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Macroblock is operating at the current time. Most of Macroblock's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Macroblock's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Macroblock's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Macroblock to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.