Grupo México Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 4GE Stock | EUR 10.18 0.09 0.89% |
Grupo Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Grupo México's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 17th of February 2026 the relative strength momentum indicator of Grupo México's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.845 | Wall Street Target Price 85.76 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.34 |
Using Grupo México hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Grupo Mxico SAB from the perspective of Grupo México response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grupo Mxico SAB on the next trading day is expected to be 10.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.03. Grupo México after-hype prediction price | EUR 10.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Grupo |
Grupo México Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Grupo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Grupo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Grupo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Grupo México Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grupo Mxico SAB on the next trading day is expected to be 10.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Grupo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Grupo México's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Grupo México Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Grupo México | Grupo México Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Grupo México Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Grupo México's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Grupo México's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.27 and 15.06, respectively. We have considered Grupo México's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Grupo México stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Grupo México stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.1383 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1028 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2671 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0316 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.0287 |
Predictive Modules for Grupo México
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupo Mxico SAB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Grupo México After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Grupo México at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Grupo México or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Grupo México, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Grupo México Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Grupo México's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Grupo México's historical news coverage. Grupo México's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.40 and 15.28, respectively. We have considered Grupo México's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Grupo México is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Grupo Mxico SAB is based on 3 months time horizon.
Grupo México Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Grupo México is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Grupo México backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Grupo México, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.76 | 4.90 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 2 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.18 | 10.34 | 1.57 |
|
Grupo México Hype Timeline
Grupo Mxico SAB is presently traded for 10.18on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.27. Grupo is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 10.34 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is forecasted to be 1.57%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.76%. The volatility of related hype on Grupo México is about 1365.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.45. The company reported the revenue of 18.18 B. Net Income was 5.04 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 9.01 B. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grupo México to cross-verify your projections.Grupo México Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Grupo México's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Grupo México's future price movements. Getting to know how Grupo México's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Grupo México may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AIL | LAir Liquide SA | (2.68) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.64 | (1.29) | 5.88 | |
| GOKA | Office Properties Income | 0.00 | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| AVLA | Air Lease | 0.00 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 0.93 | (0.92) | 2.78 | |
| WI8 | Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane | 0.01 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.01 | (2.85) | 11.50 | |
| 9ZJ | QLEANAIR AB SK 50 | (0.14) | 2 per month | 3.95 | 0.08 | 6.32 | (5.95) | 28.37 | |
| UR3 | United Rentals | 5.19 | 8 per month | 2.70 | (0.01) | 5.72 | (4.59) | 14.97 | |
| ALK | Alaska Air Group | 0.09 | 10 per month | 2.50 | 0.11 | 4.95 | (4.13) | 11.27 | |
| FXL | FUYO GENERAL LEASE | 0.40 | 4 per month | 0.67 | 0.07 | 1.77 | (1.67) | 4.51 |
Other Forecasting Options for Grupo México
For every potential investor in Grupo, whether a beginner or expert, Grupo México's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Grupo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Grupo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Grupo México's price trends.Grupo México Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Grupo México stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Grupo México could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Grupo México by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Grupo México Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Grupo México stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Grupo México shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Grupo México stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Grupo Mxico SAB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Grupo México Risk Indicators
The analysis of Grupo México's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Grupo México's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting grupo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.34 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.38 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.8 | |||
| Variance | 23.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 23.59 | |||
| Semi Variance | 19.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Grupo México
The number of cover stories for Grupo México depends on current market conditions and Grupo México's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Grupo México is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Grupo México's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Grupo México Short Properties
Grupo México's future price predictability will typically decrease when Grupo México's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Grupo Mxico SAB often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Grupo México's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grupo México's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.8 B | |
| Dividends Paid | 2.6 B |
Other Information on Investing in Grupo Stock
Grupo México financial ratios help investors to determine whether Grupo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Grupo with respect to the benefits of owning Grupo México security.