Otis Worldwide Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

4PG Stock  EUR 96.78  0.10  0.10%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Otis Worldwide Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 97.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.94. Otis Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Otis Worldwide's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Otis Worldwide is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Otis Worldwide Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Otis Worldwide Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Otis Worldwide Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 97.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.90, mean absolute percentage error of 1.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.94.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Otis Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Otis Worldwide's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Otis Worldwide Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Otis WorldwideOtis Worldwide Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Otis Worldwide Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Otis Worldwide's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Otis Worldwide's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 95.88 and 98.17, respectively. We have considered Otis Worldwide's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
96.78
97.03
Expected Value
98.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Otis Worldwide stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Otis Worldwide stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.2365
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.9023
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0099
SAESum of the absolute errors55.9428
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Otis Worldwide Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Otis Worldwide. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Otis Worldwide

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Otis Worldwide Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
95.6496.7897.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
87.10109.04110.18
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Otis Worldwide

For every potential investor in Otis, whether a beginner or expert, Otis Worldwide's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Otis Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Otis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Otis Worldwide's price trends.

Otis Worldwide Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Otis Worldwide stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Otis Worldwide could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Otis Worldwide by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Otis Worldwide Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Otis Worldwide's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Otis Worldwide's current price.

Otis Worldwide Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Otis Worldwide stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Otis Worldwide shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Otis Worldwide stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Otis Worldwide Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Otis Worldwide Risk Indicators

The analysis of Otis Worldwide's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Otis Worldwide's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting otis stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Otis Stock

When determining whether Otis Worldwide Corp is a strong investment it is important to analyze Otis Worldwide's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Otis Worldwide's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Otis Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Otis Worldwide to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Otis Worldwide's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Otis Worldwide is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Otis Worldwide's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.