DOUGLAS DYNAMICS Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 5D4 Stock | EUR 28.00 0.00 0.00% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DOUGLAS DYNAMICS on the next trading day is expected to be 28.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.43. DOUGLAS Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast DOUGLAS DYNAMICS stock prices and determine the direction of DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The value of RSI of DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's share price is at 54. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using DOUGLAS DYNAMICS hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of DOUGLAS DYNAMICS from the perspective of DOUGLAS DYNAMICS response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DOUGLAS DYNAMICS on the next trading day is expected to be 28.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.43. DOUGLAS DYNAMICS after-hype prediction price | EUR 28.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
DOUGLAS |
DOUGLAS DYNAMICS Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine DOUGLAS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for DOUGLAS using various technical indicators. When you analyze DOUGLAS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
DOUGLAS DYNAMICS Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DOUGLAS DYNAMICS on the next trading day is expected to be 28.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DOUGLAS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
DOUGLAS DYNAMICS Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest DOUGLAS DYNAMICS | DOUGLAS DYNAMICS Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
DOUGLAS DYNAMICS Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.47 and 29.53, respectively. We have considered DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DOUGLAS DYNAMICS stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DOUGLAS DYNAMICS stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4883 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0272 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2572 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0096 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.43 |
Predictive Modules for DOUGLAS DYNAMICS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DOUGLAS DYNAMICS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.DOUGLAS DYNAMICS After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of DOUGLAS DYNAMICS at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in DOUGLAS DYNAMICS or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
DOUGLAS DYNAMICS Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's historical news coverage. DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.47 and 29.53, respectively. We have considered DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
DOUGLAS DYNAMICS is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of DOUGLAS DYNAMICS is based on 3 months time horizon.
DOUGLAS DYNAMICS Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as DOUGLAS DYNAMICS is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading DOUGLAS DYNAMICS backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
28.00 | 28.00 | 0.00 |
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DOUGLAS DYNAMICS Hype Timeline
DOUGLAS DYNAMICS is presently traded for 28.00on Berlin Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. DOUGLAS is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on DOUGLAS DYNAMICS is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.00. The company last dividend was issued on the 19th of March 1970. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DOUGLAS DYNAMICS to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade DOUGLAS Stock refer to our How to Trade DOUGLAS Stock guide.DOUGLAS DYNAMICS Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's future price movements. Getting to know how DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how DOUGLAS DYNAMICS may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 9GY | USWE SPORTS AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.17 | (4.80) | 12.98 | |
| CE1 | Perdoceo Education | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.99 | (3.81) | 11.33 | |
| UVD | Universal Display | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.11 | (4.15) | 25.10 | |
| CUW | COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.14 | (0.02) | 2.76 | (3.43) | 8.48 | |
| 2NY2 | ePlay Digital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| UVD | UNIVERSAL DISPLAY | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.11 | (3.01) | 23.09 | |
| AC8 | ARISTOCRAT LEISURE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.71 | (1.68) | 7.28 | |
| 688 | PLAY2CHILL SA ZY | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.67 | (0.02) | 6.41 | (5.33) | 26.91 |
Other Forecasting Options for DOUGLAS DYNAMICS
For every potential investor in DOUGLAS, whether a beginner or expert, DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DOUGLAS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DOUGLAS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's price trends.DOUGLAS DYNAMICS Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with DOUGLAS DYNAMICS stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of DOUGLAS DYNAMICS could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing DOUGLAS DYNAMICS by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
DOUGLAS DYNAMICS Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how DOUGLAS DYNAMICS stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading DOUGLAS DYNAMICS shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying DOUGLAS DYNAMICS stock market strength indicators, traders can identify DOUGLAS DYNAMICS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
DOUGLAS DYNAMICS Risk Indicators
The analysis of DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting douglas stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.96 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Variance | 2.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for DOUGLAS DYNAMICS
The number of cover stories for DOUGLAS DYNAMICS depends on current market conditions and DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that DOUGLAS DYNAMICS is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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DOUGLAS DYNAMICS Short Properties
DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's future price predictability will typically decrease when DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of DOUGLAS DYNAMICS often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 26.5 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 13.8 M |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in DOUGLAS Stock
When determining whether DOUGLAS DYNAMICS is a strong investment it is important to analyze DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact DOUGLAS DYNAMICS's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding DOUGLAS Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DOUGLAS DYNAMICS to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade DOUGLAS Stock refer to our How to Trade DOUGLAS Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.