AECC Aviation Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| 600893 Stock | 41.80 0.08 0.19% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AECC Aviation Power on the next trading day is expected to be 41.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.71. AECC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AECC Aviation stock prices and determine the direction of AECC Aviation Power's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of AECC Aviation's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
AECC |
AECC Aviation Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AECC Aviation Power on the next trading day is expected to be 41.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91, mean absolute percentage error of 1.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.71.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AECC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AECC Aviation's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AECC Aviation Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AECC Aviation | AECC Aviation Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AECC Aviation Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AECC Aviation's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AECC Aviation's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.99 and 44.72, respectively. We have considered AECC Aviation's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AECC Aviation stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AECC Aviation stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1992 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9118 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0221 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 54.7068 |
Predictive Modules for AECC Aviation
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AECC Aviation Power. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for AECC Aviation
For every potential investor in AECC, whether a beginner or expert, AECC Aviation's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AECC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AECC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AECC Aviation's price trends.AECC Aviation Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AECC Aviation stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AECC Aviation could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AECC Aviation by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AECC Aviation Power Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AECC Aviation's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AECC Aviation's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AECC Aviation Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AECC Aviation stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AECC Aviation shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AECC Aviation stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AECC Aviation Power entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 656899.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.08) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 41.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 41.83 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.09) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.08) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 45.7 |
AECC Aviation Risk Indicators
The analysis of AECC Aviation's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AECC Aviation's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aecc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Variance | 7.42 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.93 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.26 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.36) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in AECC Stock
AECC Aviation financial ratios help investors to determine whether AECC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AECC with respect to the benefits of owning AECC Aviation security.