Huatai Securities Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

601688 Stock   18.44  0.11  0.59%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Huatai Securities Co on the next trading day is expected to be 18.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.32. Huatai Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Huatai Securities stock prices and determine the direction of Huatai Securities Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Huatai Securities' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Huatai Securities' Total Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Total Stockholder Equity is expected to grow to about 188.1 B, whereas Other Liabilities is forecasted to decline to about 12.3 B.
Huatai Securities simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Huatai Securities Co are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Huatai Securities prices get older.

Huatai Securities Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Huatai Securities Co on the next trading day is expected to be 18.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.32.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Huatai Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Huatai Securities' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Huatai Securities Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Huatai SecuritiesHuatai Securities Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Huatai Securities Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Huatai Securities' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Huatai Securities' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.24 and 21.64, respectively. We have considered Huatai Securities' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.44
18.44
Expected Value
21.64
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Huatai Securities stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Huatai Securities stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.0481
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.094
MADMean absolute deviation0.3387
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0193
SAESum of the absolute errors20.32
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Huatai Securities Co forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Huatai Securities observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Huatai Securities

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Huatai Securities. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
15.2018.4021.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.5514.7520.41
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
17.2518.0618.87
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.320.380.45
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Huatai Securities. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Huatai Securities' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Huatai Securities' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Huatai Securities.

Other Forecasting Options for Huatai Securities

For every potential investor in Huatai, whether a beginner or expert, Huatai Securities' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Huatai Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Huatai. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Huatai Securities' price trends.

Huatai Securities Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Huatai Securities stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Huatai Securities could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Huatai Securities by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Huatai Securities Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Huatai Securities' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Huatai Securities' current price.

Huatai Securities Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Huatai Securities stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Huatai Securities shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Huatai Securities stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Huatai Securities Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Huatai Securities Risk Indicators

The analysis of Huatai Securities' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Huatai Securities' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting huatai stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in Huatai Stock

Huatai Securities financial ratios help investors to determine whether Huatai Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Huatai with respect to the benefits of owning Huatai Securities security.