Xander International Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

6118 Stock  TWD 21.10  0.15  0.71%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Xander International on the next trading day is expected to be 21.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.53. Xander Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Xander International - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Xander International prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Xander International price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Xander International.

Xander International Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Xander International on the next trading day is expected to be 21.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48, mean absolute percentage error of 0.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.53.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Xander Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Xander International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Xander International Stock Forecast Pattern

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Xander International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Xander International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Xander International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.42 and 23.60, respectively. We have considered Xander International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.10
21.01
Expected Value
23.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Xander International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Xander International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0826
MADMean absolute deviation0.4836
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0215
SAESum of the absolute errors28.5317
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Xander International observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Xander International observations.

Predictive Modules for Xander International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Xander International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.5121.1023.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.7718.3623.21
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
21.0121.1521.29
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Xander International

For every potential investor in Xander, whether a beginner or expert, Xander International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Xander Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Xander. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Xander International's price trends.

Xander International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Xander International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Xander International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Xander International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Xander International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Xander International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Xander International's current price.

Xander International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Xander International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Xander International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Xander International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Xander International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Xander International Risk Indicators

The analysis of Xander International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Xander International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting xander stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Xander International

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Xander International position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Xander International will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Xander Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Xander International could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Xander International when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Xander International - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Xander International to buy it.
The correlation of Xander International is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Xander International moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Xander International moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Xander International can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Xander Stock Analysis

When running Xander International's price analysis, check to measure Xander International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Xander International is operating at the current time. Most of Xander International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Xander International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Xander International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Xander International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.