APERAM REG Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 7AA Stock | EUR 42.90 0.14 0.33% |
APERAM Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time The relative strength momentum indicator of APERAM REG's share price is above 80 . This suggests that the stock is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 80
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using APERAM REG hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of APERAM REG from the perspective of APERAM REG response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of APERAM REG on the next trading day is expected to be 42.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.90. APERAM REG after-hype prediction price | EUR 42.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
APERAM |
APERAM REG Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine APERAM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for APERAM using various technical indicators. When you analyze APERAM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
APERAM REG Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of APERAM REG on the next trading day is expected to be 42.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55, mean absolute percentage error of 0.81, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict APERAM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that APERAM REG's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
APERAM REG Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest APERAM REG | APERAM REG Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
APERAM REG Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting APERAM REG's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. APERAM REG's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 40.56 and 45.24, respectively. We have considered APERAM REG's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of APERAM REG stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent APERAM REG stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0597 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1997 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5483 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0146 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 32.9 |
Predictive Modules for APERAM REG
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as APERAM REG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.APERAM REG After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of APERAM REG at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in APERAM REG or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of APERAM REG, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
APERAM REG Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting APERAM REG's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on APERAM REG's historical news coverage. APERAM REG's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.44 and 45.12, respectively. We have considered APERAM REG's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
APERAM REG is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of APERAM REG is based on 3 months time horizon.
APERAM REG Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as APERAM REG is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading APERAM REG backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with APERAM REG, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.50 | 2.34 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 4 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
42.90 | 42.78 | 0.28 |
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APERAM REG Hype Timeline
APERAM REG is presently traded for 42.90on Munich Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. APERAM is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 42.78. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.28%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.5%. The volatility of related hype on APERAM REG is about 1376.47%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 42.98. The company has Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 0.92. In the past many companies with similar price-to-book ratios have beat the market. APERAM REG last dividend was issued on the 14th of May 2020. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of APERAM REG to cross-verify your projections.APERAM REG Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to APERAM REG's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict APERAM REG's future price movements. Getting to know how APERAM REG's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how APERAM REG may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EV9 | Entravision Communications | (0.04) | 6 per month | 2.35 | (0.01) | 5.97 | (4.23) | 18.41 | |
| 1WT | WisdomTree Investments | 0.31 | 8 per month | 1.53 | 0.21 | 4.55 | (2.85) | 13.99 | |
| BAC | Verizon Communications | 0.50 | 6 per month | 1.02 | 0.10 | 2.15 | (1.80) | 12.89 | |
| 6BC0 | EAT WELL INVESTMENT | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| GUG | Guangdong Investment Limited | 0.00 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.86 | (3.80) | 8.12 | |
| 96W | MAVEN WIRELESS SWEDEN | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 7.89 | (7.69) | 31.52 | |
| 1ZG | Zegona Communications plc | 0.40 | 6 per month | 1.76 | 0.29 | 5.16 | (3.68) | 11.82 | |
| 9B7 | AOYAMA TRADING | 0.20 | 3 per month | 1.66 | 0.03 | 1.55 | (1.52) | 10.92 |
Other Forecasting Options for APERAM REG
For every potential investor in APERAM, whether a beginner or expert, APERAM REG's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. APERAM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in APERAM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying APERAM REG's price trends.APERAM REG Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with APERAM REG stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of APERAM REG could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing APERAM REG by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
APERAM REG Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how APERAM REG stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading APERAM REG shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying APERAM REG stock market strength indicators, traders can identify APERAM REG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 42.9 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 42.9 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.07 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.14 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 80.4 |
APERAM REG Risk Indicators
The analysis of APERAM REG's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in APERAM REG's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aperam stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Variance | 5.48 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.67 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.98) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for APERAM REG
The number of cover stories for APERAM REG depends on current market conditions and APERAM REG's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that APERAM REG is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about APERAM REG's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for APERAM Stock Analysis
When running APERAM REG's price analysis, check to measure APERAM REG's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy APERAM REG is operating at the current time. Most of APERAM REG's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of APERAM REG's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move APERAM REG's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of APERAM REG to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.