Direxion Shares Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AAPD Etf | USD 14.39 0.02 0.14% |
Direxion Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Direxion Shares stock prices and determine the direction of Direxion Shares ETF's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Direxion Shares' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Direxion Shares' share price is above 70 at the present time. This suggests that the etf is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Direxion, making its price go up or down. Momentum 72
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Direxion Shares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Direxion Shares ETF from the perspective of Direxion Shares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Direxion Shares ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 14.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.05. Direxion Shares after-hype prediction price | USD 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Direxion | Build AI portfolio with Direxion Etf |
Direxion Shares Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Direxion price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Direxion using various technical indicators. When you analyze Direxion charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Direxion Shares Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Direxion Shares ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 14.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Direxion Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Direxion Shares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Direxion Shares Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Direxion Shares | Direxion Shares Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Direxion Shares Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Direxion Shares' Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Direxion Shares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.50 and 15.28, respectively. We have considered Direxion Shares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Direxion Shares etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Direxion Shares etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.0414 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0208 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0842 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0064 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.05 |
Predictive Modules for Direxion Shares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Direxion Shares ETF. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Direxion Shares After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Direxion Shares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Direxion Shares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Direxion Shares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Direxion Shares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Direxion Shares' etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Direxion Shares' historical news coverage. Direxion Shares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 0.89, respectively. We have considered Direxion Shares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Direxion Shares is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Direxion Shares ETF is based on 3 months time horizon.
Direxion Shares Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Direxion Shares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Direxion Shares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Direxion Shares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
14.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
|
Direxion Shares Hype Timeline
Direxion Shares ETF is presently traded for 14.39. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Direxion is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.15%. %. The volatility of related hype on Direxion Shares is about 2069.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.38. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Direxion Shares to cross-verify your projections.Direxion Shares Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Direxion Shares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Direxion Shares' future price movements. Getting to know how Direxion Shares' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Direxion Shares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HIBS | Direxion Daily SP | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.22 | (6.09) | 17.83 | |
| ERY | Direxion Daily Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.23 | (4.47) | 12.48 | |
| GGLS | Direxion Daily GOOGL | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 2.49 | (3.23) | 9.29 | |
| EDZ | Direxion Daily MSCI | (0.50) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.58 | (3.94) | 13.43 | |
| WANT | Direxion Daily Cnsmr | (0.11) | 9 per month | 3.53 | 0.03 | 5.69 | (6.82) | 15.52 | |
| SMHB | ETRACS 2xMonthly Pay | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.60 | (0) | 4.29 | (3.39) | 12.36 | |
| SRS | ProShares UltraShort Real | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.15 | 0.02 | 2.94 | (2.30) | 8.11 | |
| ZSL | ProShares UltraShort Silver | (0.06) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.33) | 7.42 | (13.13) | 33.80 | |
| YCS | ProShares UltraShort Yen | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.01 | 0.02 | 1.41 | (1.23) | 6.19 | |
| TPOR | Direxion Daily Transportation | 0.24 | 1 per month | 2.75 | 0.07 | 7.32 | (4.20) | 14.79 |
Other Forecasting Options for Direxion Shares
For every potential investor in Direxion, whether a beginner or expert, Direxion Shares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Direxion Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Direxion. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Direxion Shares' price trends.Direxion Shares Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Direxion Shares etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Direxion Shares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Direxion Shares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Direxion Shares Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Direxion Shares etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Direxion Shares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Direxion Shares etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Direxion Shares ETF entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Direxion Shares Risk Indicators
The analysis of Direxion Shares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Direxion Shares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting direxion etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6184 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6153 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8863 | |||
| Variance | 0.7855 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.6889 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3786 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Direxion Shares
The number of cover stories for Direxion Shares depends on current market conditions and Direxion Shares' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Direxion Shares is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Direxion Shares' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Direxion Shares to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
The market value of Direxion Shares ETF is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Direxion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Direxion Shares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Direxion Shares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Direxion Shares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Direxion Shares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Direxion Shares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Direxion Shares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Direxion Shares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.