ABM Industries Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ABM Stock | USD 56.79 0.41 0.73% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ABM Industries Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 55.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.91. ABM Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although ABM Industries' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of ABM Industries' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of ABM Industries fundamentals over time.
ABM |
ABM Industries Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the ABM Industries' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1985-10-31 | Previous Quarter 60.7 M | Current Value 86.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 86.2 M |
ABM Industries Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ABM Industries Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 55.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97, mean absolute percentage error of 1.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ABM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ABM Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ABM Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ABM Industries | ABM Industries Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ABM Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ABM Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ABM Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 53.17 and 56.90, respectively. We have considered ABM Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ABM Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ABM Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3613 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9658 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.018 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 58.9119 |
Predictive Modules for ABM Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ABM Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for ABM Industries
For every potential investor in ABM, whether a beginner or expert, ABM Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ABM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ABM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ABM Industries' price trends.ABM Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ABM Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ABM Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ABM Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ABM Industries Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ABM Industries' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ABM Industries' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ABM Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ABM Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ABM Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ABM Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ABM Industries Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ABM Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of ABM Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ABM Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting abm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Variance | 3.41 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.36 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.23) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Is Environmental & Facilities Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ABM Industries. If investors know ABM will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ABM Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.95) | Dividend Share 0.895 | Earnings Share 2.42 | Revenue Per Share 129.802 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.033 |
The market value of ABM Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ABM that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ABM Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ABM Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ABM Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ABM Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ABM Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ABM Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ABM Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.