ABM Industries Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ABM Stock | USD 46.37 0.33 0.72% |
ABM Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The value of RSI of ABM Industries' share price is at 58. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling ABM Industries, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using ABM Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ABM Industries Incorporated from the perspective of ABM Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ABM Industries Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 46.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.71. ABM Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 46.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ABM Industries to cross-verify your projections. ABM Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ABM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ABM using various technical indicators. When you analyze ABM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ABM Industries Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ABM Industries Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 46.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62, mean absolute percentage error of 1.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.71.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ABM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ABM Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ABM Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ABM Industries | ABM Industries Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
ABM Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ABM Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ABM Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.42 and 48.55, respectively. We have considered ABM Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ABM Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ABM Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1412 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6223 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0143 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.714 |
Predictive Modules for ABM Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ABM Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ABM Industries After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ABM Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ABM Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ABM Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ABM Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ABM Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ABM Industries' historical news coverage. ABM Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 44.30 and 48.44, respectively. We have considered ABM Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ABM Industries is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ABM Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
ABM Industries Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ABM Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ABM Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ABM Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 2.07 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
46.37 | 46.37 | 0.00 |
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ABM Industries Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of February ABM Industries is traded for 46.37. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. ABM is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.15%. %. The volatility of related hype on ABM Industries is about 3136.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 46.38. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.54. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. ABM Industries last dividend was issued on the 14th of January 2026. The entity had 2:1 split on the 7th of May 2002. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ABM Industries to cross-verify your projections.ABM Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ABM Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ABM Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how ABM Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ABM Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UNF | Unifirst | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.94 | 0.19 | 2.89 | (1.97) | 19.18 | |
| CBZ | CBIZ Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 3.41 | (4.64) | 14.71 | |
| MGRC | McGrath RentCorp | 0.91 | 8 per month | 1.65 | 0.0003 | 3.75 | (2.02) | 10.26 | |
| HURN | Huron Consulting Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.36 | 0.02 | 2.31 | (2.24) | 8.35 | |
| CAAP | Corporacion America Airports | (0.23) | 7 per month | 0.92 | 0.22 | 4.22 | (2.24) | 7.74 | |
| FA | First Advantage Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.70 | 0.03 | 3.67 | (4.52) | 13.15 | |
| REVG | Rev Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.35 | 0.14 | 3.47 | (2.44) | 8.65 | |
| TNET | TriNet Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.08 | 0.05 | 3.69 | (2.96) | 10.68 | |
| HAFN | Hafnia Limited | (0.02) | 1 per month | 1.73 | 0 | 2.73 | (2.68) | 8.51 | |
| GEO | Geo Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.14 | (3.33) | 14.08 |
Other Forecasting Options for ABM Industries
For every potential investor in ABM, whether a beginner or expert, ABM Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ABM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ABM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ABM Industries' price trends.ABM Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ABM Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ABM Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ABM Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ABM Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ABM Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ABM Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ABM Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ABM Industries Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ABM Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of ABM Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ABM Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting abm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.51 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Variance | 4.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.09 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.32 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ABM Industries
The number of cover stories for ABM Industries depends on current market conditions and ABM Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ABM Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ABM Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ABM Industries Short Properties
ABM Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when ABM Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ABM Industries Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ABM Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ABM Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 62.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 104.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ABM Industries to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could ABM diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ABM Industries. If investors know ABM will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every ABM Industries data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
ABM Industries's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on ABM's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate ABM Industries' intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since ABM Industries' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that ABM Industries' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether ABM Industries represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, ABM Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.