ACNB Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ACNB Stock | USD 49.03 1.82 3.58% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ACNB Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 52.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.39. ACNB Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ACNB stock prices and determine the direction of ACNB Corporation's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ACNB's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of ACNB's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.69 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.22 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.18 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.1733 | Wall Street Target Price 55.6667 |
Using ACNB hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ACNB Corporation from the perspective of ACNB response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ACNB using ACNB's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ACNB using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ACNB's stock price.
ACNB Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in ACNB's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards ACNB. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of ACNB stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 44.7283 | Short Percent 0.0113 | Short Ratio 4.29 | Shares Short Prior Month 117.6 K | 50 Day MA 49.1646 |
ACNB Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ACNB's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ACNB. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ACNB can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ACNB Corporation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
ACNB Implied Volatility | 0.78 |
ACNB's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ACNB Corporation stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ACNB's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ACNB stock will not fluctuate a lot when ACNB's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ACNB Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 52.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.39. ACNB after-hype prediction price | USD 49.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ACNB to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ACNB contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ACNB Corporation will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0488% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With ACNB trading at USD 49.03, that is roughly USD 0.0239 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ACNB's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ACNB Corporation options at the current volatility level of 0.78%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 ACNB Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ACNB's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ACNB's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ACNB stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ACNB's open interest, investors have to compare it to ACNB's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ACNB is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ACNB. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
ACNB Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ACNB price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ACNB using various technical indicators. When you analyze ACNB charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ACNB Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the ACNB's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1997-12-31 | Previous Quarter 103.1 M | Current Value 102.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 138.5 M |
ACNB Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ACNB Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 52.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84, mean absolute percentage error of 1.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.39.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ACNB Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ACNB's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ACNB Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ACNB | ACNB Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ACNB Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ACNB's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ACNB's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 51.05 and 54.03, respectively. We have considered ACNB's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ACNB stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ACNB stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.1751 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8425 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0172 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 51.3948 |
Predictive Modules for ACNB
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ACNB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ACNB After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ACNB at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ACNB or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ACNB, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ACNB Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ACNB's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ACNB's historical news coverage. ACNB's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 47.52 and 50.50, respectively. We have considered ACNB's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ACNB is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ACNB is based on 3 months time horizon.
ACNB Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ACNB is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ACNB backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ACNB, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 1.49 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
49.03 | 49.01 | 0.04 |
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ACNB Hype Timeline
ACNB is presently traded for 49.03. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. ACNB is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 49.01. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on ACNB is about 961.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 49.06. About 39.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.29. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. ACNB last dividend was issued on the 1st of December 2025. The entity had 105:100 split on the 28th of November 2007. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ACNB to cross-verify your projections.ACNB Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ACNB's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ACNB's future price movements. Getting to know how ACNB's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ACNB may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AROW | Arrow Financial | 0.12 | 8 per month | 1.29 | 0.13 | 3.59 | (2.89) | 9.60 | |
| PFIS | Peoples Fin | 0.35 | 8 per month | 1.58 | 0.04 | 3.04 | (2.33) | 7.95 | |
| SHBI | Shore Bancshares | (0.65) | 3 per month | 1.10 | 0.10 | 3.11 | (1.67) | 6.54 | |
| BWB | Bridgewater Bancshares | (0.14) | 10 per month | 1.47 | 0 | 3.50 | (2.57) | 6.37 | |
| CBNK | Capital Bancorp | 0.19 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.67 | (2.02) | 5.48 | |
| BHB | Bar Harbor Bankshares | (0.14) | 9 per month | 1.43 | 0.09 | 3.58 | (2.46) | 8.17 | |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp | 1.95 | 9 per month | 1.50 | 0.02 | 3.33 | (2.89) | 7.06 | |
| FMNB | Farmers National Banc | 0.21 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.82 | (2.64) | 5.78 | |
| NRIM | Northrim BanCorp | (0.68) | 10 per month | 2.90 | 0.09 | 4.71 | (2.42) | 8.49 | |
| COFS | ChoiceOne Financial Services | 0.34 | 8 per month | 1.59 | 0.02 | 4.04 | (2.99) | 17.01 |
Other Forecasting Options for ACNB
For every potential investor in ACNB, whether a beginner or expert, ACNB's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ACNB Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ACNB. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ACNB's price trends.ACNB Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ACNB stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ACNB could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ACNB by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ACNB Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ACNB stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ACNB shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ACNB stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ACNB Corporation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ACNB Risk Indicators
The analysis of ACNB's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ACNB's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting acnb stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Variance | 2.39 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.52 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.44) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ACNB
The number of cover stories for ACNB depends on current market conditions and ACNB's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ACNB is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ACNB's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ACNB to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ACNB. If investors know ACNB will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ACNB listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.69 | Earnings Share 3.6 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.493 | Return On Assets |
The market value of ACNB is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ACNB that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ACNB's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ACNB's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ACNB's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ACNB's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ACNB's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ACNB is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ACNB's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.