Acacia Research Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| ACTG Stock | USD 3.96 0.05 1.25% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Acacia Research on the next trading day is expected to be 3.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.67. Acacia Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Acacia Research's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 24th of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Acacia Research's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.97) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.14) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.04 | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.53) | Wall Street Target Price 5 |
Using Acacia Research hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Acacia Research from the perspective of Acacia Research response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Acacia Research using Acacia Research's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Acacia using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Acacia Research's stock price.
Acacia Research Implied Volatility | 1.14 |
Acacia Research's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Acacia Research stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Acacia Research's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Acacia Research stock will not fluctuate a lot when Acacia Research's options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Acacia Research on the next trading day is expected to be 3.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.67. Acacia Research after-hype prediction price | USD 3.98 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Acacia Research to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Acacia Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Acacia Research's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Acacia Research's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Acacia Research stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Acacia Research's open interest, investors have to compare it to Acacia Research's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Acacia Research is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Acacia. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Acacia Research Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Acacia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Acacia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Acacia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Acacia Research Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Acacia Research on the next trading day is expected to be 3.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Acacia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Acacia Research's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Acacia Research Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Acacia Research | Acacia Research Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Acacia Research Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Acacia Research's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Acacia Research's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.46 and 6.51, respectively. We have considered Acacia Research's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Acacia Research stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Acacia Research stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3054 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0753 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0207 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.6661 |
Predictive Modules for Acacia Research
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Acacia Research. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Acacia Research's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Acacia Research After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Acacia Research at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Acacia Research or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Acacia Research, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Acacia Research Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Acacia Research's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Acacia Research's historical news coverage. Acacia Research's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.45 and 6.51, respectively. We have considered Acacia Research's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Acacia Research is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Acacia Research is based on 3 months time horizon.
Acacia Research Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Acacia Research is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Acacia Research backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Acacia Research, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 2.53 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.96 | 3.98 | 0.51 |
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Acacia Research Hype Timeline
Acacia Research is presently traded for 3.96. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Acacia is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 3.98 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.51%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on Acacia Research is about 31625.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.96. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 122.31 M. Net Loss for the year was (34.7 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 86.67 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Acacia Research to cross-verify your projections.Acacia Research Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Acacia Research's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Acacia Research's future price movements. Getting to know how Acacia Research's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Acacia Research may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SPIR | Spire Global | 0.82 | 9 per month | 6.71 | 0.04 | 8.32 | (6.80) | 31.88 | |
| CVEO | Civeo Corp | 0.24 | 5 per month | 1.69 | 0.07 | 2.75 | (1.82) | 14.66 | |
| ANPA | Rich Sparkle Holdings | (1.10) | 7 per month | 10.31 | 0.11 | 21.25 | (23.66) | 295.76 | |
| QUAD | Quad Graphics | 0.03 | 8 per month | 3.18 | 0.02 | 3.33 | (4.72) | 14.67 | |
| TGEN | Tecogen | (0.23) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 8.10 | (8.82) | 35.03 | |
| FLYX | flyExclusive | (0.35) | 10 per month | 7.61 | 0.04 | 11.96 | (11.89) | 161.87 | |
| SBC | SBC Communications | 0.40 | 10 per month | 3.08 | 0.02 | 6.43 | (6.65) | 16.73 | |
| WNC | Wabash National | 0.06 | 10 per month | 2.18 | 0.05 | 5.40 | (3.78) | 16.28 | |
| CMDB | Costamare Bulkers Holdings | 0.07 | 9 per month | 1.70 | 0.08 | 2.58 | (3.29) | 15.86 | |
| PANL | Pangaea Logistic | (0.02) | 10 per month | 1.25 | 0.21 | 5.11 | (2.91) | 22.74 |
Other Forecasting Options for Acacia Research
For every potential investor in Acacia, whether a beginner or expert, Acacia Research's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Acacia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Acacia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Acacia Research's price trends.Acacia Research Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Acacia Research stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Acacia Research could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Acacia Research by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Acacia Research Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Acacia Research stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Acacia Research shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Acacia Research stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Acacia Research entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 4448.76 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.38) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 3.99 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 3.98 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.05) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.05) |
Acacia Research Risk Indicators
The analysis of Acacia Research's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Acacia Research's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting acacia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.49 | |||
| Variance | 6.19 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.92 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.78) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Acacia Research
The number of cover stories for Acacia Research depends on current market conditions and Acacia Research's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Acacia Research is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Acacia Research's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Acacia Research Short Properties
Acacia Research's future price predictability will typically decrease when Acacia Research's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Acacia Research often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Acacia Research's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Acacia Research's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 99.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 333.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Acacia Research to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Acacia Stock please use our How to Invest in Acacia Research guide.You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Is Research & Consulting Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Acacia Research. If investors know Acacia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Acacia Research listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.97) | Earnings Share 0.06 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.55 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Acacia Research is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Acacia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Acacia Research's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Acacia Research's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Acacia Research's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Acacia Research's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Acacia Research's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Acacia Research is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Acacia Research's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.