Tecogen Stock Price Patterns
| TGEN Stock | USD 3.80 0.03 0.80% |
Momentum 30
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.95) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.17) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.05) | Wall Street Target Price 15 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.543 |
Using Tecogen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tecogen from the perspective of Tecogen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Tecogen using Tecogen's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Tecogen using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Tecogen's stock price.
Tecogen Implied Volatility | 1.62 |
Tecogen's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Tecogen stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Tecogen's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Tecogen stock will not fluctuate a lot when Tecogen's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Tecogen to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Tecogen because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Tecogen after-hype prediction price | USD 3.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Tecogen contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Tecogen will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.1% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Tecogen trading at USD 3.8, that is roughly USD 0.003848 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Tecogen's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Tecogen options at the current volatility level of 1.62%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Tecogen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tecogen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Tecogen After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Tecogen at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tecogen or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Tecogen, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Tecogen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Tecogen's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tecogen's historical news coverage. Tecogen's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.20 and 9.52, respectively. We have considered Tecogen's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Tecogen is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tecogen is based on 3 months time horizon.
Tecogen Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Tecogen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tecogen backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tecogen, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.68 | 5.53 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.80 | 3.99 | 5.84 |
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Tecogen Hype Timeline
Tecogen is at this time traded for 3.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.22, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Tecogen is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 3.99 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 5.84%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.68%. The volatility of related hype on Tecogen is about 11285.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.77. Tecogen currently holds about 2.83 M in cash with 4.06 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.11. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Tecogen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Tecogen Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Tecogen's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tecogen's future price movements. Getting to know how Tecogen's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tecogen may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AIRJ | Montana Technologies | (0.23) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 13.28 | (8.01) | 31.81 | |
| SLDP | Solid Power | 0.26 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 6.71 | (8.23) | 19.44 | |
| BNC | CEA Industries | 0.14 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 9.58 | (9.22) | 35.96 | |
| NL | NL Industries | (0.1) | 6 per month | 2.33 | 0.02 | 5.51 | (4.21) | 20.34 | |
| ELVA | Electrovaya | 0.14 | 9 per month | 4.45 | 0.14 | 8.39 | (5.90) | 46.08 | |
| CVEO | Civeo Corp | 0.06 | 5 per month | 0.49 | 0.26 | 2.53 | (1.39) | 4.13 | |
| RLGT | Radiant Logistics | (0.03) | 10 per month | 1.96 | 0.10 | 3.86 | (3.28) | 16.21 | |
| ACTG | Acacia Research | 0.13 | 6 per month | 2.06 | 0.05 | 3.30 | (3.28) | 8.11 | |
| FSTR | LB Foster | (0.41) | 10 per month | 1.39 | 0.08 | 3.69 | (2.38) | 11.26 | |
| PKOH | Park Ohio Holdings | (0.45) | 8 per month | 1.82 | 0.21 | 5.26 | (3.57) | 10.51 |
Tecogen Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Tecogen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tecogen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tecogen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Tecogen Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Tecogen stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Tecogen, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Tecogen based on analysis of Tecogen hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Tecogen's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Tecogen's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 116.06 | 103.68 | 93.32 | 107.77 | PTB Ratio | 1.36 | 3.57 | 4.11 | 7.34 |
Pair Trading with Tecogen
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Tecogen position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Tecogen will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Tecogen Stock
| 0.9 | FORN | Forbo Holding AG | PairCorr |
| 0.89 | ZEHN | Zehnder | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | 52SA | SYSTEMAIR AB | PairCorr |
| 0.86 | NX | Quanex Building Products | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | OC | Owens Corning Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | AOS | Smith AO | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Tecogen could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Tecogen when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Tecogen - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Tecogen to buy it.
The correlation of Tecogen is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Tecogen moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Tecogen moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Tecogen can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Tecogen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Tecogen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Tecogen guide.You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Will Building Products sector continue expanding? Could Tecogen diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Tecogen. If investors know Tecogen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Tecogen data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.95) | Earnings Share (0.16) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.543 | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Tecogen using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Tecogen's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Tecogen's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Tecogen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Tecogen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Tecogen's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.