Koninklijke Ahold Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AD Stock | EUR 41.33 0.08 0.19% |
Koninklijke Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Koninklijke Ahold's stock price is slightly above 60. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Koninklijke, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.586 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.61 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.7581 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.9475 | Wall Street Target Price 39.4775 |
Using Koninklijke Ahold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize from the perspective of Koninklijke Ahold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize on the next trading day is expected to be 41.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.19. Koninklijke Ahold after-hype prediction price | EUR 41.3 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Koninklijke |
Koninklijke Ahold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Koninklijke price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Koninklijke using various technical indicators. When you analyze Koninklijke charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Koninklijke Ahold Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize on the next trading day is expected to be 41.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Koninklijke Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Koninklijke Ahold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Koninklijke Ahold Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Koninklijke Ahold | Koninklijke Ahold Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Koninklijke Ahold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Koninklijke Ahold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Koninklijke Ahold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.92 and 43.42, respectively. We have considered Koninklijke Ahold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Koninklijke Ahold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Koninklijke Ahold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.069 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3198 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0089 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.1907 |
Predictive Modules for Koninklijke Ahold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Koninklijke Ahold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Koninklijke Ahold After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Koninklijke Ahold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Koninklijke Ahold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Koninklijke Ahold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Koninklijke Ahold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Koninklijke Ahold's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Koninklijke Ahold's historical news coverage. Koninklijke Ahold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 39.56 and 43.04, respectively. We have considered Koninklijke Ahold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Koninklijke Ahold is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Koninklijke Ahold is based on 3 months time horizon.
Koninklijke Ahold Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Koninklijke Ahold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Koninklijke Ahold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Koninklijke Ahold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 1.75 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 3 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
41.33 | 41.30 | 0.07 |
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Koninklijke Ahold Hype Timeline
Koninklijke Ahold is presently traded for 41.33on Euronext Amsterdam of Netherlands. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Koninklijke is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 41.3. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on Koninklijke Ahold is about 846.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.28. About 55.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Koninklijke Ahold was presently reported as 16.01. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.88. Koninklijke Ahold last dividend was issued on the 10th of April 2026. The entity had 16:17 split on the 18th of July 2016. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Koninklijke Ahold to cross-verify your projections.Koninklijke Ahold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Koninklijke Ahold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Koninklijke Ahold's future price movements. Getting to know how Koninklijke Ahold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Koninklijke Ahold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CCEP | Coca Cola Europacific Partners | 0.20 | 9 per month | 0.87 | 0.13 | 2.17 | (1.64) | 5.17 | |
| HEIA | Heineken | (0.12) | 6 per month | 1.10 | 0.07 | 2.49 | (1.85) | 6.94 | |
| HEIO | Heineken Holding NV | 0.15 | 2 per month | 0.82 | 0.15 | 2.31 | (1.69) | 5.93 | |
| DSFIR | DSM Firmenich AG | (1.58) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.80 | (2.57) | 13.96 | |
| JDEP | Jde Peets Nv | (0.04) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.40) | 0.26 | (0.19) | 1.45 | |
| SLIGR | Sligro Food Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.30 | 4.01 | (1.79) | 11.30 | |
| ACOMO | Amsterdam Commodities NV | 0.25 | 1 per month | 0.40 | 0.13 | 2.14 | (1.18) | 5.10 | |
| FFARM | ForFarmers NV | (0.22) | 5 per month | 0.23 | 0.33 | 3.37 | (1.13) | 8.68 | |
| PORF | BV Delftsch Aardewerkfabriek | (0.50) | 1 per month | 1.79 | 0.08 | 7.41 | (4.17) | 15.25 |
Other Forecasting Options for Koninklijke Ahold
For every potential investor in Koninklijke, whether a beginner or expert, Koninklijke Ahold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Koninklijke Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Koninklijke. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Koninklijke Ahold's price trends.Koninklijke Ahold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Koninklijke Ahold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Koninklijke Ahold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Koninklijke Ahold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Koninklijke Ahold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Koninklijke Ahold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Koninklijke Ahold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Koninklijke Ahold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Koninklijke Ahold Risk Indicators
The analysis of Koninklijke Ahold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Koninklijke Ahold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting koninklijke stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8735 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4893 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Variance | 2.86 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.7761 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2394 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.08) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Koninklijke Ahold
The number of cover stories for Koninklijke Ahold depends on current market conditions and Koninklijke Ahold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Koninklijke Ahold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Koninklijke Ahold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Koninklijke Ahold Short Properties
Koninklijke Ahold's future price predictability will typically decrease when Koninklijke Ahold's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Koninklijke Ahold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Koninklijke Ahold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 905 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.9 B |
Additional Tools for Koninklijke Stock Analysis
When running Koninklijke Ahold's price analysis, check to measure Koninklijke Ahold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Koninklijke Ahold is operating at the current time. Most of Koninklijke Ahold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Koninklijke Ahold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Koninklijke Ahold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Koninklijke Ahold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.