Adidas AG OTC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ADDYY Stock | USD 88.92 1.51 1.67% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Adidas AG ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 85.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.14. Adidas OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Adidas AG's share price is approaching 36. This suggests that the otc stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Adidas AG, making its price go up or down. Momentum 36
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Adidas AG based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Adidas AG hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Adidas AG ADR from the perspective of Adidas AG response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Adidas AG ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 85.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.14. Adidas AG after-hype prediction price | USD 88.92 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Adidas |
Adidas AG Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Adidas price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Adidas using various technical indicators. When you analyze Adidas charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Adidas AG Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Adidas AG ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 85.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.63, mean absolute percentage error of 4.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Adidas OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Adidas AG's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Adidas AG OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Adidas AG | Adidas AG Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Adidas AG Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Adidas AG's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Adidas AG's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 83.72 and 88.08, respectively. We have considered Adidas AG's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Adidas AG otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Adidas AG otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.4556 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.6313 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0173 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 101.143 |
Predictive Modules for Adidas AG
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adidas AG ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Adidas AG's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Adidas AG After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Adidas AG at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Adidas AG or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Adidas AG, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Adidas AG Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Adidas AG's otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Adidas AG's historical news coverage. Adidas AG's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 86.76 and 91.08, respectively. We have considered Adidas AG's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Adidas AG is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Adidas AG ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Adidas AG OTC Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Adidas AG is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Adidas AG backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Adidas AG, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 2.18 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 16 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 16 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
88.92 | 88.92 | 0.00 |
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Adidas AG Hype Timeline
Adidas AG ADR is presently traded for 88.92. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.19. Adidas is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.32%. %. The volatility of related hype on Adidas AG is about 357.96%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 88.73. The book value of the company was presently reported as 16.8. The company last dividend was issued on the 13th of May 2022. Adidas AG ADR had 4:1 split on the 13th of June 2006. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 16 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adidas AG to cross-verify your projections.Adidas AG Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Adidas AG's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Adidas AG's future price movements. Getting to know how Adidas AG's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Adidas AG may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AMADF | Amadeus IT Group | (1.60) | 20 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.87 | (4.32) | 9.98 | |
| AMADY | Amadeus IT Holding | (1.60) | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 2.55 | (2.75) | 7.51 | |
| TYIDY | Toyota Industries | (0.44) | 4 per month | 1.82 | 0.03 | 3.53 | (3.39) | 13.57 | |
| TYIDF | Toyota Industries Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 1.67 | 0.00 | 11.90 | |
| HSHCY | Haier Smart Home | (0.44) | 4 per month | 1.34 | 0.03 | 2.35 | (2.05) | 6.62 | |
| QIHCF | Haier Smart Home | 0.12 | 22 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.55 | |
| CUKPF | Carnival plc | (0.44) | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | (1.56) | 24.17 | |
| BRDCF | Bridgestone | 0.35 | 12 per month | 22.93 | 0.19 | 107.06 | (51.76) | 161.28 | |
| HRSHF | Haier Smart Home | (0.44) | 4 per month | 3.22 | 0.03 | 9.01 | (8.06) | 20.80 | |
| OLCLY | Oriental Land Co | (1.60) | 24 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 2.05 | (2.91) | 9.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for Adidas AG
For every potential investor in Adidas, whether a beginner or expert, Adidas AG's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Adidas OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Adidas. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Adidas AG's price trends.Adidas AG Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Adidas AG otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Adidas AG could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Adidas AG by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Adidas AG Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Adidas AG otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Adidas AG shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Adidas AG otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Adidas AG ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1709.77 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.78) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 89.75 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 89.47 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.58) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.51) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 36.93 |
Adidas AG Risk Indicators
The analysis of Adidas AG's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Adidas AG's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting adidas otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Variance | 4.49 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Adidas AG
The number of cover stories for Adidas AG depends on current market conditions and Adidas AG's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Adidas AG is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Adidas AG's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Adidas OTC Stock Analysis
When running Adidas AG's price analysis, check to measure Adidas AG's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Adidas AG is operating at the current time. Most of Adidas AG's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Adidas AG's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Adidas AG's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Adidas AG to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.