Adira Dinamika Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| ADMF Stock | IDR 8,725 125.00 1.45% |
Adira Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the value of rsi of Adira Dinamika's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 18
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Adira Dinamika hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Adira Dinamika Multi from the perspective of Adira Dinamika response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Adira Dinamika Multi on the next trading day is expected to be 8,542 with a mean absolute deviation of 135.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8,386. Adira Dinamika after-hype prediction price | IDR 8725.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Adira |
Adira Dinamika Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Adira price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Adira using various technical indicators. When you analyze Adira charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Adira Dinamika Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Adira Dinamika Multi on the next trading day is expected to be 8,542 with a mean absolute deviation of 135.25, mean absolute percentage error of 26,631, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8,386.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Adira Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Adira Dinamika's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Adira Dinamika Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Adira Dinamika | Adira Dinamika Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Adira Dinamika Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Adira Dinamika's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Adira Dinamika's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8,541 and 8,544, respectively. We have considered Adira Dinamika's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Adira Dinamika stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Adira Dinamika stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 130.1382 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 135.2526 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0159 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8385.6601 |
Predictive Modules for Adira Dinamika
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adira Dinamika Multi. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Adira Dinamika After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Adira Dinamika at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Adira Dinamika or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Adira Dinamika, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Adira Dinamika Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Adira Dinamika's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Adira Dinamika's historical news coverage. Adira Dinamika's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8,724 and 8,726, respectively. We have considered Adira Dinamika's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Adira Dinamika is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Adira Dinamika Multi is based on 3 months time horizon.
Adira Dinamika Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Adira Dinamika is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Adira Dinamika backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Adira Dinamika, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8,725 | 8,725 | 0.00 |
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Adira Dinamika Hype Timeline
Adira Dinamika Multi is presently traded for 8,725on Jakarta Exchange of Indonesia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Adira is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Adira Dinamika is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8,725. About 92.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.93. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Adira Dinamika Multi recorded earning per share (EPS) of 1606.0. The entity last dividend was issued on the 8th of April 2022. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adira Dinamika to cross-verify your projections.Adira Dinamika Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Adira Dinamika's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Adira Dinamika's future price movements. Getting to know how Adira Dinamika's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Adira Dinamika may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AMAR | Bank Amar Indonesia | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.95 | (3.45) | 11.80 | |
| MASB | Bank Multiarta Sentosa | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.29 | (0.02) | 3.61 | (5.06) | 16.74 |
Other Forecasting Options for Adira Dinamika
For every potential investor in Adira, whether a beginner or expert, Adira Dinamika's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Adira Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Adira. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Adira Dinamika's price trends.Adira Dinamika Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Adira Dinamika stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Adira Dinamika could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Adira Dinamika by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Adira Dinamika Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Adira Dinamika stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Adira Dinamika shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Adira Dinamika stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Adira Dinamika Multi entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3930.68 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.4167 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 8650.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 8675.0 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.0026 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 137.5 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 125.0 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 18.36 |
Adira Dinamika Risk Indicators
The analysis of Adira Dinamika's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Adira Dinamika's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting adira stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7379 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Variance | 1.51 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Adira Dinamika
The number of cover stories for Adira Dinamika depends on current market conditions and Adira Dinamika's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Adira Dinamika is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Adira Dinamika's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Adira Dinamika Short Properties
Adira Dinamika's future price predictability will typically decrease when Adira Dinamika's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Adira Dinamika Multi often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Adira Dinamika's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Adira Dinamika's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1000 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 T |
Other Information on Investing in Adira Stock
Adira Dinamika financial ratios help investors to determine whether Adira Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Adira with respect to the benefits of owning Adira Dinamika security.