Autodesk Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ADSK Stock | USD 319.39 1.88 0.59% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Autodesk on the next trading day is expected to be 320.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 184.82. Autodesk Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Autodesk's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Autodesk's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Autodesk fundamentals over time.
Autodesk |
Autodesk Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Autodesk on the next trading day is expected to be 320.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.13, mean absolute percentage error of 15.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 184.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Autodesk Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Autodesk's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Autodesk Stock Forecast Pattern
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Autodesk Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Autodesk's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Autodesk's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 319.42 and 322.02, respectively. We have considered Autodesk's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Autodesk stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Autodesk stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.6775 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.1326 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.011 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 184.8206 |
Predictive Modules for Autodesk
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Autodesk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Autodesk's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Autodesk
For every potential investor in Autodesk, whether a beginner or expert, Autodesk's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Autodesk Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Autodesk. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Autodesk's price trends.Autodesk Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Autodesk stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Autodesk could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Autodesk by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Autodesk Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Autodesk's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Autodesk's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Autodesk Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Autodesk stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Autodesk shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Autodesk stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Autodesk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 69231.35 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.24) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 322.62 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 321.54 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (4.17) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.88) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 76.93 |
Autodesk Risk Indicators
The analysis of Autodesk's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Autodesk's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting autodesk stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8617 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Variance | 1.68 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.66 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7426 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.13) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Autodesk to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Autodesk Stock please use our How to buy in Autodesk Stock guide.You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Autodesk. If investors know Autodesk will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Autodesk listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.262 | Earnings Share 4.88 | Revenue Per Share 27.063 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.119 | Return On Assets 0.0889 |
The market value of Autodesk is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Autodesk that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Autodesk's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Autodesk's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Autodesk's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Autodesk's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Autodesk's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Autodesk is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Autodesk's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.