Addus HomeCare Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ADUS Stock | USD 110.37 0.63 0.57% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Addus HomeCare on the next trading day is expected to be 110.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 122.78. Addus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Addus HomeCare's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.127 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.7206 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.1708 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.8631 | Wall Street Target Price 141 |
Using Addus HomeCare hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Addus HomeCare from the perspective of Addus HomeCare response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Addus HomeCare using Addus HomeCare's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Addus using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Addus HomeCare's stock price.
Addus HomeCare Short Interest
An investor who is long Addus HomeCare may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Addus HomeCare and may potentially protect profits, hedge Addus HomeCare with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 111.7937 | Short Percent 0.0457 | Short Ratio 4.1 | Shares Short Prior Month 784.8 K | 50 Day MA 112.3592 |
Addus HomeCare Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Addus HomeCare's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Addus. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Addus can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Addus HomeCare. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Addus HomeCare Implied Volatility | 0.49 |
Addus HomeCare's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Addus HomeCare stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Addus HomeCare's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Addus HomeCare stock will not fluctuate a lot when Addus HomeCare's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Addus HomeCare on the next trading day is expected to be 110.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 122.78. Addus HomeCare after-hype prediction price | USD 110.11 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Addus HomeCare to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Addus contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Addus HomeCare will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0306% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Addus HomeCare trading at USD 110.37, that is roughly USD 0.0338 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Addus HomeCare's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Addus HomeCare options at the current volatility level of 0.49%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Addus Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Addus HomeCare's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Addus HomeCare's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Addus HomeCare stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Addus HomeCare's open interest, investors have to compare it to Addus HomeCare's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Addus HomeCare is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Addus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Addus HomeCare Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Addus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Addus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Addus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Addus HomeCare's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2007-12-31 | Previous Quarter 91.2 M | Current Value 101.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 61.6 M |
Addus HomeCare Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Addus HomeCare on the next trading day is expected to be 110.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.01, mean absolute percentage error of 7.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 122.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Addus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Addus HomeCare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Addus HomeCare Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Addus HomeCare | Addus HomeCare Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Addus HomeCare Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Addus HomeCare's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Addus HomeCare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 108.27 and 112.24, respectively. We have considered Addus HomeCare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Addus HomeCare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Addus HomeCare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.1224 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0128 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0177 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 122.778 |
Predictive Modules for Addus HomeCare
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Addus HomeCare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Addus HomeCare's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Addus HomeCare After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Addus HomeCare at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Addus HomeCare or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Addus HomeCare, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Addus HomeCare Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Addus HomeCare's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Addus HomeCare's historical news coverage. Addus HomeCare's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 108.12 and 112.10, respectively. We have considered Addus HomeCare's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Addus HomeCare is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Addus HomeCare is based on 3 months time horizon.
Addus HomeCare Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Addus HomeCare is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Addus HomeCare backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Addus HomeCare, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.99 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
110.37 | 110.11 | 0.24 |
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Addus HomeCare Hype Timeline
Addus HomeCare is presently traded for 110.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.26, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Addus is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 110.11. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 106.42%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.24%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Addus HomeCare is about 296.13%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 110.46. About 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.93. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Addus HomeCare has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.07. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Addus HomeCare to cross-verify your projections.Addus HomeCare Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Addus HomeCare's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Addus HomeCare's future price movements. Getting to know how Addus HomeCare's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Addus HomeCare may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NHC | National HealthCare | 2.24 | 6 per month | 1.49 | 0.11 | 2.84 | (2.07) | 9.28 | |
| BKD | Brookdale Senior Living | 0.12 | 10 per month | 0.65 | 0.26 | 4.17 | (1.73) | 9.26 | |
| ARDT | Ardent Health Partners | 0.17 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.47 | (3.69) | 36.66 | |
| AVAH | Aveanna Healthcare Holdings | (0.20) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.50 | (5.27) | 15.54 | |
| ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | 0.53 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.71 | (7.64) | 21.29 | |
| MD | Mednax Inc | 0.75 | 8 per month | 1.48 | 0.12 | 3.16 | (2.69) | 28.51 | |
| ITGR | Integer Holdings Corp | 1.70 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.57 | (3.44) | 34.70 | |
| INSP | Inspire Medical Systems | 0.89 | 10 per month | 5.02 | 0.02 | 7.93 | (4.87) | 49.96 | |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings | 0.24 | 11 per month | 0.98 | 0.06 | 3.00 | (2.37) | 13.50 | |
| PINC | Premier | 0.28 | 34 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 0.56 | (0.45) | 30.68 |
Other Forecasting Options for Addus HomeCare
For every potential investor in Addus, whether a beginner or expert, Addus HomeCare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Addus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Addus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Addus HomeCare's price trends.Addus HomeCare Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Addus HomeCare stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Addus HomeCare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Addus HomeCare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Addus HomeCare Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Addus HomeCare stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Addus HomeCare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Addus HomeCare stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Addus HomeCare entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 5986.28 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.1736 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 109.3 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 109.65 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.39 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.63 |
Addus HomeCare Risk Indicators
The analysis of Addus HomeCare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Addus HomeCare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting addus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.94 | |||
| Variance | 3.78 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Addus HomeCare
The number of cover stories for Addus HomeCare depends on current market conditions and Addus HomeCare's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Addus HomeCare is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Addus HomeCare's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Addus HomeCare Short Properties
Addus HomeCare's future price predictability will typically decrease when Addus HomeCare's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Addus HomeCare often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Addus HomeCare's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Addus HomeCare's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 98.9 M |
Additional Tools for Addus Stock Analysis
When running Addus HomeCare's price analysis, check to measure Addus HomeCare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Addus HomeCare is operating at the current time. Most of Addus HomeCare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Addus HomeCare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Addus HomeCare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Addus HomeCare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.