Aethlon Medical Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| AEMD Stock | USD 2.65 0.15 5.36% |
Aethlon Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Aethlon Medical stock prices and determine the direction of Aethlon Medical's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aethlon Medical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Aethlon Medical's share price is approaching 41. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Aethlon Medical, making its price go up or down. Momentum 41
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (2.48) | EPS Estimate Current Year (9.41) | EPS Estimate Next Year (5.70) | Wall Street Target Price 12.375 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (1.70) |
Using Aethlon Medical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aethlon Medical from the perspective of Aethlon Medical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Aethlon Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 2.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.53. Aethlon Medical after-hype prediction price | USD 2.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aethlon Medical to cross-verify your projections. Aethlon Medical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aethlon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aethlon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aethlon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aethlon Medical Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Aethlon Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 2.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aethlon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aethlon Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aethlon Medical Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aethlon Medical | Aethlon Medical Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aethlon Medical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aethlon Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aethlon Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 9.63, respectively. We have considered Aethlon Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aethlon Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aethlon Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2421 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3202 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0992 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.5347 |
Predictive Modules for Aethlon Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aethlon Medical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aethlon Medical After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aethlon Medical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aethlon Medical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aethlon Medical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aethlon Medical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aethlon Medical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aethlon Medical's historical news coverage. Aethlon Medical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.13 and 10.00, respectively. We have considered Aethlon Medical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aethlon Medical is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aethlon Medical is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aethlon Medical Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aethlon Medical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aethlon Medical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aethlon Medical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.86 | 7.41 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.65 | 2.65 | 0.00 |
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Aethlon Medical Hype Timeline
Aethlon Medical is presently traded for 2.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.12. Aethlon is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.86%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aethlon Medical is about 5529.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.77. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.47. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Aethlon Medical recorded earning per share (EPS) of 209.2. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of October 2019. The firm had 1:10 split on the 20th of October 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aethlon Medical to cross-verify your projections.Aethlon Medical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aethlon Medical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aethlon Medical's future price movements. Getting to know how Aethlon Medical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aethlon Medical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CODX | Co Diagnostics | (0.23) | 12 per month | 13.73 | 0.03 | 13.38 | (20.90) | 319.85 | |
| ALUR | Allurion Technologies | (0.05) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 16.54 | (10.32) | 40.95 | |
| NVNO | enVVeno Medical Corp | 0.14 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 8.13 | (10.09) | 41.30 | |
| ERNA | Eterna Therapeutics | (0.06) | 6 per month | 4.63 | 0.03 | 12.10 | (7.41) | 51.97 | |
| ADAP | Adaptimmune Therapeutics Plc | 0.02 | 25 per month | 15.04 | 0.03 | 22.82 | (18.18) | 168.52 | |
| XAIR | Beyond Air | (0.01) | 17 per month | 6.29 | 0.01 | 14.46 | (10.16) | 163.02 | |
| TNON | Tenon Medical | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.98 | (4.04) | 16.03 | |
| IINN | Inspira Technologies Oxy | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 6.86 | (6.96) | 24.08 | |
| LNAI | Lunai Bioworks | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 12.62 | (8.82) | 55.92 | |
| VVOS | Vivos Therapeutics | 1.47 | 30 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.29 | (7.11) | 31.84 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aethlon Medical
For every potential investor in Aethlon, whether a beginner or expert, Aethlon Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aethlon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aethlon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aethlon Medical's price trends.Aethlon Medical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aethlon Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aethlon Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aethlon Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aethlon Medical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aethlon Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aethlon Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aethlon Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aethlon Medical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.65 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.65 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.07) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.15) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 41.92 |
Aethlon Medical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aethlon Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aethlon Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aethlon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.67 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.19 | |||
| Variance | 51.67 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aethlon Medical
The number of cover stories for Aethlon Medical depends on current market conditions and Aethlon Medical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aethlon Medical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aethlon Medical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aethlon Medical Short Properties
Aethlon Medical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Aethlon Medical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aethlon Medical often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aethlon Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aethlon Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 156.1 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aethlon Medical to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Aethlon Stock refer to our How to Trade Aethlon Stock guide.You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Will Health Care Equipment & Supplies sector continue expanding? Could Aethlon diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aethlon Medical. If investors know Aethlon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Aethlon Medical data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share 209.2 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 42.782 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Aethlon Medical's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Aethlon's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Aethlon Medical's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Aethlon Medical's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that Aethlon Medical's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Aethlon Medical represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, Aethlon Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.