American Electric Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| AEP Stock | USD 119.21 0.09 0.08% |
American Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although American Electric's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of American Electric's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of American Electric fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of American Electric's share price is at 54. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling American Electric, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.006 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.1184 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.9143 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.3208 | Wall Street Target Price 128.75 |
Using American Electric hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Electric Power from the perspective of American Electric response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Electric using American Electric's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Electric's stock price.
American Electric Short Interest
An investor who is long American Electric may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about American Electric and may potentially protect profits, hedge American Electric with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 111.4194 | Short Percent 0.0344 | Short Ratio 5.59 | Shares Short Prior Month 18 M | 50 Day MA 117.6692 |
American Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of American Electric Power on the next trading day is expected to be 119.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.69.American Electric Power Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Electric's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Electric Power. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Electric's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Electric.
American Electric Implied Volatility | 0.46 |
American Electric's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Electric Power stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Electric's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Electric stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Electric's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of American Electric Power on the next trading day is expected to be 119.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.69. American Electric after-hype prediction price | USD 119.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Electric to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Electric Power will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0288% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With American Electric trading at USD 119.21, that is roughly USD 0.0343 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Electric's daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Electric Power options at the current volatility level of 0.46%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 American Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast American Electric's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in American Electric's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for American Electric stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current American Electric's open interest, investors have to compare it to American Electric's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of American Electric is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in American. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
American Electric Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Electric Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of American Electric Power on the next trading day is expected to be 119.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01, mean absolute percentage error of 1.63, and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Electric's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Electric Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Electric | American Electric Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
American Electric Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Electric's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Electric's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 118.25 and 120.17, respectively. We have considered American Electric's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Electric stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Electric stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.763 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0029 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0114 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0085 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 60.685 |
Predictive Modules for American Electric
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Electric Power. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Electric's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Electric After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Electric at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Electric or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Electric, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Electric Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Electric's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Electric's historical news coverage. American Electric's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 118.26 and 120.16, respectively. We have considered American Electric's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Electric is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Electric Power is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Electric Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Electric is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Electric backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Electric, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 0.96 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
119.21 | 119.21 | 0.00 |
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American Electric Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January American Electric Power is traded for 119.21. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. American is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 124.68%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on American Electric is about 176.8%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 119.22. About 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of American Electric was presently reported as 56.79. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.19. American Electric Power recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.83. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of February 2026. The firm had 2:1 split on the 31st of October 1962. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Electric to cross-verify your projections.American Electric Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Electric's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Electric's future price movements. Getting to know how American Electric's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Electric may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NGG | National Grid PLC | 0.02 | 10 per month | 0.76 | 0.12 | 1.91 | (1.43) | 4.11 | |
| EXC | Exelon | 0.11 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.26 | (1.77) | 4.76 | |
| D | Dominion Energy | 0.42 | 10 per month | 1.32 | (0.04) | 1.63 | (2.04) | 5.71 | |
| XEL | Xcel Energy | 1.44 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.27 | (1.64) | 5.29 | |
| ETR | Entergy | 0.85 | 9 per month | 1.22 | (0.05) | 1.70 | (2.15) | 4.90 | |
| SRE | Sempra Energy | (0.13) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.52 | (2.76) | 6.43 | |
| VST | Vistra Energy Corp | (0.25) | 23 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.61 | (5.88) | 18.01 | |
| PEG | Public Service Enterprise | 0.62 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.61 | (2.04) | 5.52 | |
| ED | Consolidated Edison | 1.87 | 8 per month | 1.04 | 0.04 | 1.58 | (1.66) | 4.62 | |
| DUK | Duke Energy | 0.48 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.24 | (1.39) | 4.59 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Electric
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Electric's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Electric's price trends.American Electric Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Electric stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Electric could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Electric by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Electric Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Electric stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Electric shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Electric stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Electric Power entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 66464.61 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0396 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 119.69 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 119.53 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.43) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.09 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 54.53 |
American Electric Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Electric's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Electric's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8033 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9117 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Variance | 1.44 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9494 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8313 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.89) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Electric
The number of cover stories for American Electric depends on current market conditions and American Electric's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Electric is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Electric's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Electric Short Properties
American Electric's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Electric's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Electric Power often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Electric's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Electric's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 531.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 418.3 M |
Additional Tools for American Stock Analysis
When running American Electric's price analysis, check to measure American Electric's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Electric is operating at the current time. Most of American Electric's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Electric's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Electric's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Electric to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.