AF Gruppen Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AFG Stock | NOK 184.00 7.00 3.66% |
AFG Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the value of rsi of AF Gruppen's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using AF Gruppen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AF Gruppen ASA from the perspective of AF Gruppen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AF Gruppen ASA on the next trading day is expected to be 184.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 107.55. AF Gruppen after-hype prediction price | NOK 184.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
AFG |
AF Gruppen Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AFG price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AFG using various technical indicators. When you analyze AFG charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AF Gruppen Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 15th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AF Gruppen ASA on the next trading day is expected to be 184.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.79, mean absolute percentage error of 5.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 107.55.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AFG Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AF Gruppen's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AF Gruppen Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AF Gruppen | AF Gruppen Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
AF Gruppen Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AF Gruppen's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AF Gruppen's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 183.66 and 186.23, respectively. We have considered AF Gruppen's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AF Gruppen stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AF Gruppen stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.3707 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.7926 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0098 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 107.5548 |
Predictive Modules for AF Gruppen
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AF Gruppen ASA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AF Gruppen After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AF Gruppen at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AF Gruppen or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AF Gruppen, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AF Gruppen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AF Gruppen's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AF Gruppen's historical news coverage. AF Gruppen's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 182.72 and 185.28, respectively. We have considered AF Gruppen's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AF Gruppen is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AF Gruppen ASA is based on 3 months time horizon.
AF Gruppen Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AF Gruppen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AF Gruppen backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AF Gruppen, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
184.00 | 184.00 | 0.00 |
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AF Gruppen Hype Timeline
AF Gruppen ASA is presently traded for 184.00on Oslo Stock Exchange of Norway. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. AFG is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.07%. %. The volatility of related hype on AF Gruppen is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 184.00. About 62.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 9.39. AF Gruppen ASA last dividend was issued on the 15th of May 2023. The entity had 5:1 split on the 18th of January 2010. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AF Gruppen to cross-verify your projections.AF Gruppen Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AF Gruppen's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AF Gruppen's future price movements. Getting to know how AF Gruppen's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AF Gruppen may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VEI | Veidekke ASA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.78 | 0.16 | 1.88 | (1.43) | 5.25 | |
| NORCO | Norconsult ASA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 1.81 | (2.94) | 7.61 | |
| DOFG | DOF Group ASA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.01 | 0.18 | 2.43 | (1.92) | 6.95 | |
| SNI | Stolt Nielsen Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.09 | (3.24) | 12.90 | |
| NAS | Norwegian Air Shuttle | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.68 | 0.06 | 3.29 | (2.54) | 11.00 | |
| HAUTO | Hoegh Autoliners ASA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.30 | 0.17 | 3.12 | (2.86) | 9.11 | |
| BWLPG | BW LPG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.82 | 0.11 | 4.26 | (3.14) | 10.86 | |
| WWIB | Wilh Wilhelmsen Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.85 | 0.18 | 3.08 | (2.26) | 10.28 | |
| CADLR | Cadeler As | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.78 | 0.21 | 5.07 | (3.16) | 10.67 | |
| WWI | Wilh Wilhelmsen Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.60 | 0.26 | 2.64 | (1.88) | 9.29 |
Other Forecasting Options for AF Gruppen
For every potential investor in AFG, whether a beginner or expert, AF Gruppen's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AFG Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AFG. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AF Gruppen's price trends.AF Gruppen Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AF Gruppen stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AF Gruppen could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AF Gruppen by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AF Gruppen Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AF Gruppen stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AF Gruppen shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AF Gruppen stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AF Gruppen ASA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 9146.02 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.83) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 186.8 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 185.87 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (6.30) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (7.00) |
AF Gruppen Risk Indicators
The analysis of AF Gruppen's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AF Gruppen's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting afg stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Variance | 2.38 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.81 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.41 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.34) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AF Gruppen
The number of cover stories for AF Gruppen depends on current market conditions and AF Gruppen's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AF Gruppen is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AF Gruppen's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AF Gruppen Short Properties
AF Gruppen's future price predictability will typically decrease when AF Gruppen's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AF Gruppen ASA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AF Gruppen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AF Gruppen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 106.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 634 M |
Other Information on Investing in AFG Stock
AF Gruppen financial ratios help investors to determine whether AFG Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AFG with respect to the benefits of owning AF Gruppen security.