Afya Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AFYA Stock | USD 14.65 0.33 2.30% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Afya on the next trading day is expected to be 13.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.91. Afya Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Afya stock prices and determine the direction of Afya's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Afya's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Afya's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.298 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.0346 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.2459 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.8312 | Wall Street Target Price 18.0721 |
Using Afya hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Afya from the perspective of Afya response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Afya using Afya's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Afya using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Afya's stock price.
Afya Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Afya's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Afya. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Afya stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 15.9733 | Short Percent 0.0197 | Short Ratio 3.92 | Shares Short Prior Month 273 K | 50 Day MA 14.7158 |
Afya Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Afya's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Afya. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Afya can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Afya. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Afya Implied Volatility | 0.96 |
Afya's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Afya stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Afya's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Afya stock will not fluctuate a lot when Afya's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Afya on the next trading day is expected to be 13.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.91. Afya after-hype prediction price | USD 14.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Afya to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Afya contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Afya will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.06% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Afya trading at USD 14.65, that is roughly USD 0.00879 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Afya's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Afya options at the current volatility level of 0.96%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Afya Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Afya's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Afya's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Afya stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Afya's open interest, investors have to compare it to Afya's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Afya is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Afya. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Afya Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Afya price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Afya using various technical indicators. When you analyze Afya charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Afya Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Afya's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2018-03-31 | Previous Quarter 1.1 B | Current Value 996.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 426.8 M |
Afya Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Afya on the next trading day is expected to be 13.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Afya Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Afya's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Afya Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Afya | Afya Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Afya Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Afya's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Afya's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.90 and 15.04, respectively. We have considered Afya's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Afya stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Afya stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5658 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2117 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0145 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.9133 |
Predictive Modules for Afya
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Afya. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Afya's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Afya After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Afya at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Afya or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Afya, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Afya Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Afya's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Afya's historical news coverage. Afya's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.08 and 16.22, respectively. We have considered Afya's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Afya is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Afya is based on 3 months time horizon.
Afya Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Afya is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Afya backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Afya, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.57 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.65 | 14.65 | 0.00 |
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Afya Hype Timeline
Afya is presently traded for 14.65. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.22. Afya is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Afya is about 14.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.43. About 68.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.44. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Afya last dividend was issued on the 26th of March 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Afya to cross-verify your projections.Afya Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Afya's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Afya's future price movements. Getting to know how Afya's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Afya may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PXED | Phoenix Education Partners | 0.53 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.25 | (6.71) | 19.87 | |
| DAO | Youdao Inc | (7.49) | 8 per month | 3.26 | 0.01 | 6.96 | (5.06) | 16.06 | |
| COUR | Coursera | 0.21 | 34 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 2.66 | (4.25) | 14.34 | |
| UVV | Universal | (48.06) | 4 per month | 1.01 | (0.01) | 1.65 | (1.81) | 8.15 | |
| GOTU | Gaotu Techedu DRC | 0.21 | 19 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 4.96 | (4.62) | 14.34 | |
| DOLE | Dole PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.29 | 0.16 | 1.92 | (2.32) | 8.95 | |
| UTI | Universal Technical Institute | 0.53 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.73 | (4.31) | 25.18 | |
| STRA | Strategic Education | (0.04) | 10 per month | 2.18 | 0.02 | 2.39 | (4.08) | 12.29 | |
| SPB | Spectrum Brands Holdings | (56.31) | 20 per month | 1.65 | 0.09 | 3.51 | (2.75) | 12.60 | |
| IMKTA | Ingles Markets Incorporated | 0.21 | 20 per month | 1.45 | (0.03) | 2.21 | (2.41) | 7.85 |
Other Forecasting Options for Afya
For every potential investor in Afya, whether a beginner or expert, Afya's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Afya Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Afya. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Afya's price trends.Afya Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Afya stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Afya could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Afya by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Afya Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Afya stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Afya shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Afya stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Afya entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2128.01 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.7021 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.43 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.51 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.38 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.33 |
Afya Risk Indicators
The analysis of Afya's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Afya's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting afya stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Variance | 2.42 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Afya
The number of cover stories for Afya depends on current market conditions and Afya's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Afya is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Afya's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Afya Short Properties
Afya's future price predictability will typically decrease when Afya's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Afya often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Afya's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Afya's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 91.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 911 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Afya to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Afya Stock refer to our How to Trade Afya Stock guide.You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Is Diversified Consumer Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Afya. If investors know Afya will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Afya listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.298 | Dividend Share 1.349 | Earnings Share 1.5 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.104 |
The market value of Afya is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Afya that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Afya's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Afya's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Afya's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Afya's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Afya's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Afya is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Afya's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.