Agenus Stock Forward View
| AGEN Stock | USD 2.84 0.15 5.02% |
Agenus Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Agenus' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Agenus' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Agenus fundamentals over time.
As of today, the RSI of Agenus' share price is approaching 39. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Agenus, making its price go up or down. Momentum 39
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5667 | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.85) | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.955 | Wall Street Target Price 12.3333 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 2.1967 |
Using Agenus hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Agenus Inc from the perspective of Agenus response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Agenus using Agenus' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Agenus using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Agenus' stock price.
Agenus Short Interest
An investor who is long Agenus may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Agenus and may potentially protect profits, hedge Agenus with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 4.2126 | Short Percent 0.0971 | Short Ratio 3.98 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.4 M | 50 Day MA 3.7608 |
Agenus Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Agenus Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 2.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.97.Agenus Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Agenus' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Agenus. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Agenus can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Agenus Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Agenus' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Agenus.
Agenus Implied Volatility | 2.54 |
Agenus' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Agenus Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Agenus' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Agenus stock will not fluctuate a lot when Agenus' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Agenus Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 2.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.97. Agenus after-hype prediction price | USD 2.84 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agenus to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Agenus contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Agenus Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.16% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Agenus trading at USD 2.84, that is roughly USD 0.004508 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Agenus' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Agenus Inc options at the current volatility level of 2.54%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Agenus Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Agenus' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Agenus' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Agenus stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Agenus' open interest, investors have to compare it to Agenus' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Agenus is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Agenus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Agenus Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Agenus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Agenus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Agenus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Agenus Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Agenus' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2000-03-31 | Previous Quarter 9.5 M | Current Value 3.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 59.5 M |
Agenus Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Agenus Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 2.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Agenus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Agenus' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Agenus Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Agenus | Agenus Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Agenus Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Agenus' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Agenus' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 6.82, respectively. We have considered Agenus' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Agenus stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Agenus stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4428 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1799 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0482 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.9729 |
Predictive Modules for Agenus
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agenus Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Agenus' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Agenus After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Agenus at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Agenus or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Agenus, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Agenus Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Agenus' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Agenus' historical news coverage. Agenus' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.14 and 7.56, respectively. We have considered Agenus' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Agenus is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Agenus Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Agenus Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Agenus is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Agenus backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Agenus, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.43 | 4.68 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.84 | 2.84 | 0.00 |
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Agenus Hype Timeline
Agenus Inc is presently traded for 2.84. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Agenus is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.43%. %. The volatility of related hype on Agenus is about 234000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.84. About 28.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.57. Agenus Inc last dividend was issued on the 29th of October 2010. The entity had 1:20 split on the 12th of April 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agenus to cross-verify your projections.Agenus Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Agenus' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Agenus' future price movements. Getting to know how Agenus' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Agenus may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| INO | Inovio Pharmaceuticals | (0.10) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 6.38 | (6.80) | 36.52 | |
| ABOS | Acumen Pharmaceuticals | 0.05 | 13 per month | 4.52 | 0.06 | 9.94 | (7.18) | 31.48 | |
| IRD | Opus Genetics | 0.06 | 7 per month | 4.14 | 0.06 | 7.62 | (7.41) | 26.50 | |
| SEER | Seer Inc | (0.05) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 3.28 | (3.06) | 6.37 | |
| ZNTL | Zentalis Pharmaceuticals Llc | 0.04 | 7 per month | 4.23 | 0.10 | 17.36 | (9.54) | 48.58 | |
| HURA | TuHURA Biosciences | 0.00 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 7.73 | (10.53) | 50.34 | |
| PLRX | Pliant Therapeutics | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 4.58 | (6.71) | 22.72 | |
| VTGN | VistaGen Therapeutics | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 7.61 | (12.80) | 96.59 | |
| FATE | Fate Therapeutics | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.27 | (7.63) | 20.97 | |
| TTRX | Turn Therapeutics Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 7.10 | 0.02 | 15.37 | (9.68) | 42.47 |
Other Forecasting Options for Agenus
For every potential investor in Agenus, whether a beginner or expert, Agenus' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Agenus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Agenus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Agenus' price trends.Agenus Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Agenus stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Agenus could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Agenus by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Agenus Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Agenus stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Agenus shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Agenus stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Agenus Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Agenus Risk Indicators
The analysis of Agenus' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Agenus' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting agenus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.61 | |||
| Variance | 21.26 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Agenus
The number of cover stories for Agenus depends on current market conditions and Agenus' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Agenus is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Agenus' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Agenus Short Properties
Agenus' future price predictability will typically decrease when Agenus' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Agenus Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Agenus' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agenus' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 21.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 40.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agenus to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Will Biotechnology sector continue expanding? Could Agenus diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agenus. If investors know Agenus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Agenus data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (1.57) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.204 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Investors evaluate Agenus Inc using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Agenus' intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Agenus' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Agenus' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Agenus represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Agenus' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.