Agro Phos Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AGROPHOS | 42.04 0.24 0.57% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Agro Phos India on the next trading day is expected to be 41.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84 and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.36. Agro Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Agro Phos' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Agro Phos' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Agro Phos fundamentals over time.
Agro |
Agro Phos Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Agro Phos India on the next trading day is expected to be 41.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84, mean absolute percentage error of 1.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Agro Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Agro Phos' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Agro Phos Stock Forecast Pattern
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Agro Phos Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Agro Phos' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Agro Phos' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.58 and 44.70, respectively. We have considered Agro Phos' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Agro Phos stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Agro Phos stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6333 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1674 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8393 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0191 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 50.3603 |
Predictive Modules for Agro Phos
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agro Phos India. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Agro Phos
For every potential investor in Agro, whether a beginner or expert, Agro Phos' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Agro Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Agro. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Agro Phos' price trends.Agro Phos Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Agro Phos stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Agro Phos could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Agro Phos by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Agro Phos India Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Agro Phos' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Agro Phos' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Agro Phos Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Agro Phos stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Agro Phos shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Agro Phos stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Agro Phos India entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1368.34 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.15) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 42.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 42.01 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.08) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.24) |
Agro Phos Risk Indicators
The analysis of Agro Phos' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Agro Phos' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting agro stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.03 | |||
| Variance | 9.15 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Agro Stock
Agro Phos financial ratios help investors to determine whether Agro Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Agro with respect to the benefits of owning Agro Phos security.