Agro Phos Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

AGROPHOS   42.04  0.24  0.57%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Agro Phos India on the next trading day is expected to be 42.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.72. Agro Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Agro Phos' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Agro Phos' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Agro Phos fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Agro Phos' Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 28th of November 2024, Net Working Capital is likely to grow to about 287.2 M, while Total Assets are likely to drop about 792.4 M.
A two period moving average forecast for Agro Phos is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Agro Phos Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Agro Phos India on the next trading day is expected to be 42.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91, mean absolute percentage error of 1.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Agro Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Agro Phos' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Agro Phos Stock Forecast Pattern

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Agro Phos Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Agro Phos' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Agro Phos' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.10 and 45.22, respectively. We have considered Agro Phos' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
42.04
42.16
Expected Value
45.22
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Agro Phos stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Agro Phos stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.9714
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0845
MADMean absolute deviation0.9106
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0207
SAESum of the absolute errors53.725
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Agro Phos India price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Agro Phos. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Agro Phos

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agro Phos India. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
39.2142.2745.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
33.2036.2646.51
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Agro Phos

For every potential investor in Agro, whether a beginner or expert, Agro Phos' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Agro Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Agro. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Agro Phos' price trends.

Agro Phos Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Agro Phos stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Agro Phos could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Agro Phos by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Agro Phos India Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Agro Phos' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Agro Phos' current price.

Agro Phos Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Agro Phos stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Agro Phos shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Agro Phos stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Agro Phos India entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Agro Phos Risk Indicators

The analysis of Agro Phos' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Agro Phos' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting agro stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Agro Stock

Agro Phos financial ratios help investors to determine whether Agro Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Agro with respect to the benefits of owning Agro Phos security.