Adapthealth Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AHCO Stock | USD 10.23 0.14 1.39% |
Adapthealth Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Adapthealth Corp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Adapthealth Corp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Adapthealth Corp fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Adapthealth Corp's share price is at 52. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Adapthealth Corp, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.067 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4366 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.713 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.9945 | Wall Street Target Price 13.375 |
Using Adapthealth Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Adapthealth Corp from the perspective of Adapthealth Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Adapthealth Corp using Adapthealth Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Adapthealth using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Adapthealth Corp's stock price.
Adapthealth Corp Short Interest
An investor who is long Adapthealth Corp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Adapthealth Corp and may potentially protect profits, hedge Adapthealth Corp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 9.2806 | Short Percent 0.0849 | Short Ratio 7.63 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.8 M | 50 Day MA 9.9668 |
Adapthealth Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Adapthealth Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.85.Adapthealth Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Adapthealth Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Adapthealth. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Adapthealth can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Adapthealth Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Adapthealth Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Adapthealth Corp.
Adapthealth Corp Implied Volatility | 1.42 |
Adapthealth Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Adapthealth Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Adapthealth Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Adapthealth Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Adapthealth Corp's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Adapthealth Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.85. Adapthealth Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 10.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Adapthealth | Build AI portfolio with Adapthealth Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Adapthealth contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Adapthealth Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0888% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Adapthealth Corp trading at USD 10.23, that is roughly USD 0.009079 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Adapthealth Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Adapthealth Corp options at the current volatility level of 1.42%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Adapthealth Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Adapthealth Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Adapthealth Corp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Adapthealth Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Adapthealth Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Adapthealth Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Adapthealth Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Adapthealth. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Adapthealth Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Adapthealth price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Adapthealth using various technical indicators. When you analyze Adapthealth charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Adapthealth Corp Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Adapthealth Corp's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2018-03-31 | Previous Quarter 68.6 M | Current Value 80.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 77.6 M |
Adapthealth Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Adapthealth Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.85.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Adapthealth Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Adapthealth Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Adapthealth Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Adapthealth Corp | Adapthealth Corp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Adapthealth Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Adapthealth Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Adapthealth Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.20 and 13.61, respectively. We have considered Adapthealth Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Adapthealth Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Adapthealth Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8954 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2598 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0263 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.846 |
Predictive Modules for Adapthealth Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adapthealth Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Adapthealth Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Adapthealth Corp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Adapthealth Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Adapthealth Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Adapthealth Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Adapthealth Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Adapthealth Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Adapthealth Corp's historical news coverage. Adapthealth Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.99 and 13.39, respectively. We have considered Adapthealth Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Adapthealth Corp is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Adapthealth Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Adapthealth Corp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Adapthealth Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Adapthealth Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Adapthealth Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 3.20 | 0.04 | 0.72 | 6 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.23 | 10.19 | 0.39 |
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Adapthealth Corp Hype Timeline
Adapthealth Corp is presently traded for 10.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.72. Adapthealth is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 10.19. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.39%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Adapthealth Corp is about 119.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.95. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.84. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Adapthealth Corp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.52. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adapthealth Corp to cross-verify your projections.Adapthealth Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Adapthealth Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Adapthealth Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Adapthealth Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Adapthealth Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CNMD | CONMED | (0.37) | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.36 | (3.89) | 14.72 | |
| INMD | InMode | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.33 | (2.29) | 11.46 | |
| UFPT | UFP Technologies | (0.37) | 15 per month | 2.40 | 0.11 | 4.83 | (4.31) | 17.63 | |
| ESTA | Establishment Labs Holdings | 1.44 | 9 per month | 2.74 | 0.1 | 4.75 | (5.80) | 30.17 | |
| IRMD | Iradimed Co | 0.03 | 7 per month | 1.04 | 0.19 | 2.66 | (2.24) | 12.42 | |
| BBNX | Beta Bionics Common | 23.70 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 8.34 | (6.82) | 50.41 | |
| HCSG | Healthcare Services Group | (0.39) | 10 per month | 2.36 | (0.03) | 3.74 | (2.83) | 13.01 | |
| AMPH | Amphastar P | 0.35 | 11 per month | 2.21 | 0.02 | 3.98 | (3.98) | 15.04 | |
| STAA | STAAR Surgical | 2.29 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.47 | (5.66) | 15.52 | |
| CVAC | CureVac NV | 0.17 | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.33 | (2.80) | 18.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for Adapthealth Corp
For every potential investor in Adapthealth, whether a beginner or expert, Adapthealth Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Adapthealth Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Adapthealth. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Adapthealth Corp's price trends.Adapthealth Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Adapthealth Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Adapthealth Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Adapthealth Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Adapthealth Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Adapthealth Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Adapthealth Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Adapthealth Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Adapthealth Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Adapthealth Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Adapthealth Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Adapthealth Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting adapthealth stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.13 | |||
| Variance | 9.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.52 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.46 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Adapthealth Corp
The number of cover stories for Adapthealth Corp depends on current market conditions and Adapthealth Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Adapthealth Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Adapthealth Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Adapthealth Corp Short Properties
Adapthealth Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Adapthealth Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Adapthealth Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Adapthealth Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Adapthealth Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 135.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 109.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adapthealth Corp to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Adapthealth Stock, please use our How to Invest in Adapthealth Corp guide.You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Adapthealth Corp. If investors know Adapthealth will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Adapthealth Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.067 | Earnings Share 0.55 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.018 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Adapthealth Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Adapthealth that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Adapthealth Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Adapthealth Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Adapthealth Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Adapthealth Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Adapthealth Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Adapthealth Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Adapthealth Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.