Aspen Insurance Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| AHL Stock | USD 37.35 0.01 0.03% |
Aspen Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Aspen Insurance's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Aspen Insurance's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aspen Insurance fundamentals over time.
The RSI of Aspen Insurance's stock price is about 67. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Aspen, making its price go up or down. Momentum 67
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.80) | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.6 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.1063 | Wall Street Target Price 40.625 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.05 |
Using Aspen Insurance hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aspen Insurance Holdings from the perspective of Aspen Insurance response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Aspen Insurance Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 37.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.17. Aspen Insurance after-hype prediction price | USD 37.35 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aspen Insurance to cross-verify your projections. Aspen Insurance Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aspen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aspen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aspen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aspen Insurance Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Aspen Insurance Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 37.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aspen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aspen Insurance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aspen Insurance Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aspen Insurance | Aspen Insurance Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aspen Insurance Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aspen Insurance's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aspen Insurance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 37.21 and 37.48, respectively. We have considered Aspen Insurance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aspen Insurance stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aspen Insurance stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.7422 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.035 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 9.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.1708 |
Predictive Modules for Aspen Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aspen Insurance Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aspen Insurance After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aspen Insurance at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aspen Insurance or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aspen Insurance, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aspen Insurance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aspen Insurance's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aspen Insurance's historical news coverage. Aspen Insurance's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.21 and 37.49, respectively. We have considered Aspen Insurance's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aspen Insurance is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aspen Insurance Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aspen Insurance Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aspen Insurance is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aspen Insurance backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aspen Insurance, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
37.35 | 37.35 | 0.00 |
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Aspen Insurance Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January Aspen Insurance Holdings is traded for 37.35. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Aspen is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 17.5%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aspen Insurance is about 72.16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.36. About 85.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.11. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Aspen Insurance Holdings has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.95. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.28. The firm last dividend was issued on the 16th of August 2018. Aspen Insurance had 11:10 split on the September 12, 2013. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aspen Insurance to cross-verify your projections.Aspen Insurance Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aspen Insurance's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aspen Insurance's future price movements. Getting to know how Aspen Insurance's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aspen Insurance may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KMPR | Kemper | 0.80 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.31 | (3.07) | 14.64 | |
| IFZZF | Intact Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| QUCOF | Qulitas Controladora SAB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 145.69 | |
| SLDE | Slide Insurance Holdings | 0.80 | 27 per month | 1.90 | 0.02 | 4.24 | (3.18) | 14.08 | |
| AFSIC | AmTrust Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.82 | 0.0006 | 5.16 | (5.48) | 13.82 | |
| AFSIM | AmTrust Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.20 | (0.02) | 4.17 | (4.33) | 15.81 | |
| AFSIP | AmTrust Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.67 | 0.01 | 4.05 | (3.89) | 14.05 | |
| HRTG | Heritage Insurance Hldgs | (0.43) | 6 per month | 2.90 | 0.03 | 4.24 | (4.89) | 19.93 | |
| AII | American Integrity Insurance | (0.03) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.37 | (4.06) | 15.22 | |
| PLMR | Palomar Holdings | 0.80 | 4 per month | 1.84 | 0.04 | 3.22 | (3.18) | 12.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aspen Insurance
For every potential investor in Aspen, whether a beginner or expert, Aspen Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aspen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aspen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aspen Insurance's price trends.Aspen Insurance Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aspen Insurance stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aspen Insurance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aspen Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aspen Insurance Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aspen Insurance stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aspen Insurance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aspen Insurance stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aspen Insurance Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aspen Insurance Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aspen Insurance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aspen Insurance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aspen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0963 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1359 | |||
| Variance | 0.0185 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.021 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.01) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.12) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aspen Insurance
The number of cover stories for Aspen Insurance depends on current market conditions and Aspen Insurance's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aspen Insurance is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aspen Insurance's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aspen Insurance Short Properties
Aspen Insurance's future price predictability will typically decrease when Aspen Insurance's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aspen Insurance Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aspen Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aspen Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 90.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.9 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aspen Insurance to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Insurance - Property & Casualty space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aspen Insurance. If investors know Aspen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aspen Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.80) | Earnings Share 6.28 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.05 | Return On Equity |
The market value of Aspen Insurance Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aspen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aspen Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aspen Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aspen Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aspen Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aspen Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aspen Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aspen Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.