Altus Group Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| AIF Stock | CAD 46.20 0.79 1.68% |
Altus Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Altus Group's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Altus Group's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Altus Group fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Altus Group's share price is below 30 as of today. This suggests that the stock is becoming oversold or undervalued. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Altus Group Limited, making its price go up or down. Momentum 26
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.333 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.6476 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.6484 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.3065 | Wall Street Target Price 61.2857 |
Using Altus Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Altus Group Limited from the perspective of Altus Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Altus Group Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 46.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84 and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.46. Altus Group after-hype prediction price | CAD 46.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Altus |
Altus Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Altus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Altus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Altus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Altus Group Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Altus Group Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 46.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84, mean absolute percentage error of 2.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.46.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Altus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Altus Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Altus Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Altus Group | Altus Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Altus Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Altus Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Altus Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.00 and 48.40, respectively. We have considered Altus Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Altus Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Altus Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.996 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2474 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8411 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0164 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 50.465 |
Predictive Modules for Altus Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Altus Group Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Altus Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Altus Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Altus Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Altus Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Altus Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Altus Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Altus Group's historical news coverage. Altus Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 44.07 and 48.47, respectively. We have considered Altus Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Altus Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Altus Group Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.
Altus Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Altus Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Altus Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Altus Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 2.20 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 5 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
46.20 | 46.27 | 0.15 |
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Altus Group Hype Timeline
Altus Group Limited is presently traded for 46.20on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Altus is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 46.27 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.31%. The volatility of related hype on Altus Group is about 5945.95%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 46.21. The company reported the revenue of 519.73 M. Net Income was 8.76 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 196.55 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Altus Group to cross-verify your projections.Altus Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Altus Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Altus Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Altus Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Altus Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AP-UN | Allied Properties Real | 0.46 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.64 | (2.57) | 17.16 | |
| MEQ | Mainstreet Equity Corp | (0.06) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 1.21 | (1.57) | 3.10 | |
| SVI | Storage Vault Canada | 0.02 | 3 per month | 1.46 | (0.01) | 2.80 | (2.65) | 6.55 | |
| KMP-UN | Killam Apartment Real | 0.06 | 3 per month | 0.80 | (0.06) | 1.27 | (1.37) | 5.35 | |
| AX-UN | Artis Real Estate | (0.20) | 9 per month | 1.86 | 0.24 | 4.18 | (2.53) | 18.40 | |
| HR-UN | HR Real Estate | 0.15 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.00 | (1.49) | 11.77 | |
| CRR-UN | Crombie Real Estate | (0.12) | 7 per month | 0.82 | (0.02) | 1.30 | (1.44) | 3.56 | |
| IIP-UN | InterRent Real Estate | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.09 | (0.27) | 0.23 | (0.23) | 0.91 | |
| MRC | Morguard | 0.06 | 9 per month | 0.96 | 0.01 | 1.28 | (1.27) | 5.40 | |
| BEI-UN | Boardwalk Real Estate | 0.01 | 6 per month | 1.02 | (0.02) | 1.46 | (1.46) | 4.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for Altus Group
For every potential investor in Altus, whether a beginner or expert, Altus Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Altus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Altus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Altus Group's price trends.Altus Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Altus Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Altus Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Altus Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Altus Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Altus Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Altus Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Altus Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Altus Group Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 4166.34 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.65) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 46.61 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 46.47 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.80) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.79) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 26.95 |
Altus Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Altus Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Altus Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting altus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Variance | 4.6 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Altus Group
The number of cover stories for Altus Group depends on current market conditions and Altus Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Altus Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Altus Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Altus Group Short Properties
Altus Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Altus Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Altus Group Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Altus Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Altus Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 46.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 41.9 M |
Other Information on Investing in Altus Stock
Altus Group financial ratios help investors to determine whether Altus Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Altus with respect to the benefits of owning Altus Group security.