Fanhua Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AIFU Stock | 2.30 0.15 6.98% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fanhua Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 1.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.57. Fanhua Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Fanhua's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.97) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.524 | Wall Street Target Price 6 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.73) |
Using Fanhua hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fanhua Inc from the perspective of Fanhua response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Fanhua using Fanhua's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Fanhua using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Fanhua's stock price.
Fanhua Implied Volatility | 1.09 |
Fanhua's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Fanhua Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Fanhua's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Fanhua stock will not fluctuate a lot when Fanhua's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fanhua Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 1.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.57. Fanhua after-hype prediction price | USD 2.22 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fanhua to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Fanhua Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fanhua's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Fanhua's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Fanhua stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fanhua's open interest, investors have to compare it to Fanhua's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fanhua is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fanhua. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Fanhua Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fanhua price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fanhua using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fanhua charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Fanhua's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2005-12-31 | Previous Quarter 192.1 M | Current Value 77.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 825.6 M |
Fanhua Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fanhua Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 1.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.57.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fanhua Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fanhua's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fanhua Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fanhua | Fanhua Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Fanhua Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fanhua's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fanhua's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 8.55, respectively. We have considered Fanhua's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fanhua stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fanhua stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2012 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1897 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0623 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.5734 |
Predictive Modules for Fanhua
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fanhua Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Fanhua After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fanhua at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fanhua or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fanhua, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fanhua Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fanhua's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fanhua's historical news coverage. Fanhua's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.11 and 9.05, respectively. We have considered Fanhua's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fanhua is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fanhua Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fanhua Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fanhua is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fanhua backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fanhua, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.05 | 6.83 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 1 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.30 | 2.22 | 3.48 |
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Fanhua Hype Timeline
Fanhua Inc is presently traded for 2.30. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Fanhua is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 2.22. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -3.48%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -1.05%. The volatility of related hype on Fanhua is about 34150.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.32. About 90.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.78. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Fanhua Inc recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.6. The entity last dividend was issued on the 11th of April 2022. The firm had 1:20 split on the 21st of May 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fanhua to cross-verify your projections.Fanhua Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fanhua's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fanhua's future price movements. Getting to know how Fanhua's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fanhua may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OXBR | Oxbridge Re Holdings | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 7.24 | (5.67) | 17.96 | |
| GSIW | Garden Stage Limited | 0.00 | 10 per month | 3.72 | 0.0007 | 7.69 | (7.14) | 19.17 | |
| NCPL | Netcapital | 0.06 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 15.05 | (17.14) | 129.26 | |
| MEGL | Magic Empire Global | (0.05) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.56 | (6.57) | 26.79 | |
| ALF | Centurion Acquisition Corp | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.10 | (0.58) | 0.38 | (0.28) | 0.85 | |
| SHFS | SHF Holdings | 0.08 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 7.64 | (10.40) | 34.34 | |
| TVE | Tennessee Valley Authority | 0.08 | 8 per month | 0.19 | (0.18) | 0.75 | (0.49) | 1.64 | |
| WTG | Wintergreen Acquisition Corp | 0.01 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.86) | 0.30 | (0.10) | 0.59 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fanhua
For every potential investor in Fanhua, whether a beginner or expert, Fanhua's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fanhua Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fanhua. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fanhua's price trends.Fanhua Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fanhua stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fanhua could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fanhua by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fanhua Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fanhua stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fanhua shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fanhua stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fanhua Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Fanhua Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fanhua's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fanhua's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fanhua stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.84 | |||
| Variance | 46.82 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fanhua
The number of cover stories for Fanhua depends on current market conditions and Fanhua's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fanhua is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fanhua's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Fanhua Short Properties
Fanhua's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fanhua's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fanhua Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fanhua's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fanhua's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 821.3 M |
Additional Tools for Fanhua Stock Analysis
When running Fanhua's price analysis, check to measure Fanhua's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fanhua is operating at the current time. Most of Fanhua's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fanhua's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fanhua's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fanhua to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.