Aimia Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| AIM Stock | CAD 3.00 0.01 0.33% |
Aimia Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Aimia's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Aimia's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aimia fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Aimia's share price is at 59. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Aimia, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.3 K | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.04 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.49 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.25 | Wall Street Target Price 3.75 |
Using Aimia hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aimia Inc from the perspective of Aimia response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Aimia Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 3.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.35. Aimia after-hype prediction price | CAD 3.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Aimia |
Aimia Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aimia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aimia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aimia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aimia Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Aimia Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 3.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aimia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aimia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aimia Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aimia | Aimia Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aimia Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aimia's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aimia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.68 and 4.58, respectively. We have considered Aimia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aimia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aimia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.9495 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.038 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0133 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.3534 |
Predictive Modules for Aimia
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aimia Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aimia After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aimia at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aimia or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aimia, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aimia Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aimia's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aimia's historical news coverage. Aimia's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.58 and 4.48, respectively. We have considered Aimia's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aimia is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aimia Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aimia Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aimia is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aimia backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aimia, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 1.45 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 12 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.00 | 3.03 | 1.00 |
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Aimia Hype Timeline
Aimia Inc is presently traded for 3.00on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Aimia is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 3.03 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 1.0%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Aimia is about 1026.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.98. The company reported the revenue of 500.8 M. Net Loss for the year was (53.5 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 126.1 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aimia to cross-verify your projections.Aimia Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aimia's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aimia's future price movements. Getting to know how Aimia's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aimia may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OLY | Olympia Financial Group | (1.67) | 8 per month | 1.68 | (0.02) | 2.85 | (1.74) | 12.30 | |
| SBC | Brompton Split Banc | 0.30 | 6 per month | 1.19 | 0.07 | 1.78 | (1.77) | 5.27 | |
| URB-A | Urbana | (0.20) | 5 per month | 0.93 | 0.18 | 3.92 | (1.91) | 7.28 | |
| URB | Urbana | 0.50 | 4 per month | 1.50 | 0.17 | 3.92 | (2.93) | 11.09 | |
| STCK | Stack Capital Group | (0.08) | 8 per month | 2.18 | 0.21 | 7.35 | (3.72) | 13.53 | |
| GDV | Global Dividend Growth | 0.03 | 1 per month | 0.34 | 0.19 | 1.15 | (1.09) | 3.19 | |
| DFN | Dividend 15 Split | (0.03) | 5 per month | 0.51 | 0.25 | 1.47 | (0.63) | 4.59 | |
| DGS | Dividend Growth Split | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.31 | 0.24 | 1.41 | (0.97) | 3.15 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aimia
For every potential investor in Aimia, whether a beginner or expert, Aimia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aimia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aimia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aimia's price trends.Aimia Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aimia stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aimia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aimia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aimia Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aimia stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aimia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aimia stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aimia Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aimia Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aimia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aimia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aimia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Variance | 2.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.47 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.94 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.38) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aimia
The number of cover stories for Aimia depends on current market conditions and Aimia's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aimia is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aimia's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aimia Short Properties
Aimia's future price predictability will typically decrease when Aimia's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aimia Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aimia's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aimia's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 95.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 95.5 M |
Other Information on Investing in Aimia Stock
Aimia financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aimia Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aimia with respect to the benefits of owning Aimia security.