Alternus Energy OTC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ALCE Stock   0.0008  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alternus Energy Group on the next trading day is expected to be -0.5 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.12. Alternus OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alternus Energy stock prices and determine the direction of Alternus Energy Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alternus Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of Alternus Energy's share price is below 30 at the present time. This suggests that the otc stock is becoming oversold or undervalued. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Alternus Energy Group, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 27

 Sell Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Alternus Energy Group stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Alternus Energy shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Alternus Energy's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Alternus Energy and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Alternus Energy's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alternus Energy Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Alternus Energy based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Alternus Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alternus Energy Group from the perspective of Alternus Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alternus Energy Group on the next trading day is expected to be -0.5 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.12.

Alternus Energy after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 7.11E-4  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any otc stock could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in unemployment.

Alternus Energy Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Alternus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alternus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alternus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Alternus Energy is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Alternus Energy Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Alternus Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alternus Energy Group on the next trading day is expected to be -0.5 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.12.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alternus OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alternus Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alternus Energy OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Alternus EnergyAlternus Energy Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alternus Energy otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alternus Energy otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.049
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1494
MAPEMean absolute percentage error11.124
SAESum of the absolute errors9.1164
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Alternus Energy Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Alternus Energy. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Alternus Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alternus Energy Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alternus Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.000742.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.000842.18
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
-0.030.641.30
Details

Alternus Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Alternus Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alternus Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Alternus Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Alternus Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Alternus Energy's otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alternus Energy's historical news coverage. Alternus Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 42.18, respectively. We have considered Alternus Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0.0008
0.0007
After-hype Price
42.18
Upside
Alternus Energy is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alternus Energy Group is based on 3 months time horizon.

Alternus Energy OTC Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Alternus Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alternus Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alternus Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  7.97 
42.18
 0.00  
 0.00  
2 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.0008
0.0007
11.15 
0.00  
Notes

Alternus Energy Hype Timeline

Alternus Energy Group is presently traded for 0.0008. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Alternus is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 7.11E-4. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -11.15%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -7.97%. The volatility of related hype on Alternus Energy is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.00. About 51.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 24.81. Alternus Energy Group had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:25 split on the 11th of October 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any otc stock could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in unemployment.

Alternus Energy Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Alternus Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alternus Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Alternus Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alternus Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Alternus Energy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alternus Energy otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alternus Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alternus Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alternus Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alternus Energy otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alternus Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alternus Energy otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alternus Energy Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alternus Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alternus Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alternus Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alternus otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Alternus Energy

The number of cover stories for Alternus Energy depends on current market conditions and Alternus Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alternus Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alternus Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Alternus Energy Short Properties

Alternus Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alternus Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alternus Energy Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alternus Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alternus Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments23.8 M

Other Information on Investing in Alternus OTC Stock

Alternus Energy financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alternus OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alternus with respect to the benefits of owning Alternus Energy security.