Aldeyra Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ALDX Stock | USD 4.85 0.04 0.83% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aldeyra on the next trading day is expected to be 5.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.47. Aldeyra Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Aldeyra |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Aldeyra's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2012-12-31 | Previous Quarter 31 M | Current Value 28.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 68.6 M |
Aldeyra Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aldeyra on the next trading day is expected to be 5.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aldeyra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aldeyra's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aldeyra Stock Forecast Pattern
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Aldeyra Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aldeyra's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aldeyra's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.29 and 8.91, respectively. We have considered Aldeyra's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aldeyra stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aldeyra stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7967 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1389 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0263 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.4715 |
Predictive Modules for Aldeyra
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aldeyra. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aldeyra's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Aldeyra
For every potential investor in Aldeyra, whether a beginner or expert, Aldeyra's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aldeyra Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aldeyra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aldeyra's price trends.View Aldeyra Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aldeyra Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aldeyra's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aldeyra's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Aldeyra Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aldeyra stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aldeyra shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aldeyra stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aldeyra entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aldeyra Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aldeyra's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aldeyra's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aldeyra stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.88 | |||
| Variance | 15.03 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Aldeyra Stock Analysis
When running Aldeyra's price analysis, check to measure Aldeyra's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aldeyra is operating at the current time. Most of Aldeyra's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aldeyra's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aldeyra's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aldeyra to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.