Entech SE Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

ALESE Stock   9.68  0.07  0.73%   
Entech Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Entech SE's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Entech SE's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Entech SE fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Entech SE's stock price is slightly above 69. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Entech, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 69

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Entech SE's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Entech SE SAS, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Entech SE's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.52)
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.045
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.325
Wall Street Target Price
11.9
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.408
Using Entech SE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Entech SE SAS from the perspective of Entech SE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Entech SE SAS on the next trading day is expected to be 9.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.91.

Entech SE after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 9.69  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Entech SE to cross-verify your projections.

Entech SE Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Entech price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Entech using various technical indicators. When you analyze Entech charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Entech SE simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Entech SE SAS are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Entech SE SAS prices get older.

Entech SE Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Entech SE SAS on the next trading day is expected to be 9.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.91.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Entech Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Entech SE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Entech SE Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Entech SE  Entech SE Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Entech SE Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Entech SE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Entech SE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.30 and 12.07, respectively. We have considered Entech SE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.68
9.69
Expected Value
12.07
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Entech SE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Entech SE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.2041
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0415
MADMean absolute deviation0.1485
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0164
SAESum of the absolute errors8.909
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Entech SE SAS forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Entech SE observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Entech SE

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Entech SE SAS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Entech SE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
7.309.6912.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.537.9210.31
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
5.389.8714.36
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details

Entech SE After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Entech SE at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Entech SE or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Entech SE, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Entech SE Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Entech SE's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Entech SE's historical news coverage. Entech SE's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.30 and 12.08, respectively. We have considered Entech SE's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
9.68
9.69
After-hype Price
12.08
Upside
Entech SE is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Entech SE SAS is based on 3 months time horizon.

Entech SE Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Entech SE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Entech SE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Entech SE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.33 
2.39
  0.01 
  0.01 
2 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
9.68
9.69
0.10 
11,950  
Notes

Entech SE Hype Timeline

Entech SE SAS is presently traded for 9.68on Euronext Paris of France. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Entech is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 9.69 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is forecasted to be 0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.33%. The volatility of related hype on Entech SE is about 5957.13%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.69. The company reported the revenue of 46.98 M. Net Loss for the year was (802.03 K) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 13.54 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Entech SE to cross-verify your projections.

Entech SE Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Entech SE's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Entech SE's future price movements. Getting to know how Entech SE's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Entech SE may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
LHYFELhyfe SA 0.01 2 per month 0.00 (0.17) 2.15 (2.71) 10.91 
HDFHydrogene De France 0.02 2 per month 0.00 (0.13) 2.81 (2.93) 19.71 
ALOKWGroupe OKwind 0.01 2 per month 0.00 (0.04) 10.00 (8.33) 46.19 
ALCWECharwood Energy SA 0.04 3 per month 0.00 (0.03) 5.44 (4.55) 13.75 
ALHAFHaffner Energy SA(0.01)3 per month 0.00 (0.05) 22.78 (13.68) 60.71 
MLCMGCMG Cleantech SA 0.00 1 per month 0.00 (0.30) 0.00 (6.25) 7.69 
ALAGPAgripower France Sa 0.00 0 per month 2.07 (0.02) 6.00 (3.85) 15.44 
ARVENARVERNE GROUP 0.05 2 per month 0.98 (0.05) 2.05 (1.96) 7.64 
ALAGOE Pango SA(0)1 per month 0.00 (0.06) 14.29 (14.29) 76.76 
MLBSPBlue Shark Power 0.28 1 per month 0.00  0.02  10.00 (2.44) 33.03 

Other Forecasting Options for Entech SE

For every potential investor in Entech, whether a beginner or expert, Entech SE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Entech Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Entech. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Entech SE's price trends.

Entech SE Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Entech SE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Entech SE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Entech SE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Entech SE Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Entech SE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Entech SE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Entech SE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Entech SE SAS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Entech SE Risk Indicators

The analysis of Entech SE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Entech SE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting entech stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Entech SE

The number of cover stories for Entech SE depends on current market conditions and Entech SE's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Entech SE is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Entech SE's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Entech SE Short Properties

Entech SE's future price predictability will typically decrease when Entech SE's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Entech SE SAS often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Entech SE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Entech SE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding14.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments12.8 M

Additional Tools for Entech Stock Analysis

When running Entech SE's price analysis, check to measure Entech SE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Entech SE is operating at the current time. Most of Entech SE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Entech SE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Entech SE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Entech SE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.