Alfresa Holdings OTC Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ALFRY Stock | USD 15.14 0.00 0.00% |
Alfresa OTC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Alfresa Holdings' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the otc stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate signals. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Alfresa Holdings based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Alfresa Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alfresa Holdings Corp from the perspective of Alfresa Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alfresa Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 15.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.90. Alfresa Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 15.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Alfresa |
Alfresa Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alfresa price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alfresa using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alfresa charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Alfresa Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alfresa Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 15.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alfresa OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alfresa Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alfresa Holdings OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
Alfresa Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alfresa Holdings' OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alfresa Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.93 and 18.35, respectively. We have considered Alfresa Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alfresa Holdings otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alfresa Holdings otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.2175 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0067 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.065 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0046 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.9 |
Predictive Modules for Alfresa Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alfresa Holdings Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alfresa Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Alfresa Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alfresa Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Alfresa Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alfresa Holdings OTC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Alfresa Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alfresa Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alfresa Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 3.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
15.14 | 15.14 | 0.00 |
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Alfresa Holdings Hype Timeline
Alfresa Holdings Corp is presently traded for 15.14. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Alfresa is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.31%. %. The volatility of related hype on Alfresa Holdings is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.14. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out fundamental analysis of Alfresa Holdings to check your projections.Alfresa Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alfresa Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alfresa Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Alfresa Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alfresa Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SZUKF | Suzuken Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| HAWPF | Haw Par | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.73 | |
| CHSYF | China Medical System | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 89.50 | |
| DMPHF | Dermapharm Holding SE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| OSSFF | ssur hf | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16.48 | |
| OSSUY | ssur hf | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.08 | 0.00 | 18.45 | |
| MAHLY | Medipal Holdings Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.10 | 2.38 | 0.00 | 10.68 | |
| TSMRF | Tsumura Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| MEPDF | MediPal Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15.15 | |
| HTSUF | Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.23 | 17.37 | (10.40) | 2.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alfresa Holdings
For every potential investor in Alfresa, whether a beginner or expert, Alfresa Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alfresa OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alfresa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alfresa Holdings' price trends.Alfresa Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alfresa Holdings otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alfresa Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alfresa Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alfresa Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alfresa Holdings otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alfresa Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alfresa Holdings otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alfresa Holdings Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alfresa Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alfresa Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alfresa Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alfresa otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9612 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.18 | |||
| Variance | 10.12 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alfresa Holdings
The number of cover stories for Alfresa Holdings depends on current market conditions and Alfresa Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alfresa Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alfresa Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Alfresa OTC Stock Analysis
When running Alfresa Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Alfresa Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alfresa Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Alfresa Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alfresa Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alfresa Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alfresa Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.