Alamo Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ALG Stock | USD 170.85 3.88 2.32% |
Alamo's Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The fit is assessed against recent observations, so the output reflects the latest available data. When MAPE exceeds 10%, the model's short-term predictive value is significantly reduced. The Simple Exponential Smoothing model projects Alamo at 170.85 for the next trading day, at the most recent closing price. The Simple Exponential Smoothing output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing model forecasts Alamo at 170.85 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 3.38 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 206.13 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Alamo's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alamo | Alamo Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast range for Alamo defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. The current forecast range spans downside near 168.05 and upside near 173.65. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Simple Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for Alamo stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.5498 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.6074 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.3792 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0188 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 206.13 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alamo
Volume-weighted price analysis for Alamo Stock gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line identify shifts in Alamo momentum before they appear in raw price. Comparing Alamo's realized volatility to implied volatility reveals whether the options market expects larger or smaller moves. Readings above 80 or below 20 highlight potential reversal zones in Alamo Stock price action.Alamo Related Equities
These stocks within the Industrials space are often compared to Alamo by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across Alamo's peer group.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alamo Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Alamo Group, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in Alamo. These metrics are particularly useful when Alamo stock shows divergence from broader market trends. These metrics provide additional context for comparing intraday conviction with broader price movement in Alamo.
Alamo Risk Indicators
Analyzing Alamo's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for alamo stock. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for Alamo. Semi-deviation focuses exclusively on returns below the mean, making it a more conservative risk gauge for Alamo than full standard deviation. The risk-return trade-off for alamo stock becomes clearer when downside and total variance are viewed together.
| Mean Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.8 | |||
| Variance | 7.86 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Alamo Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Alamo Group matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.08 million | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 309.66 million |