Alamo Group Stock Price Prediction
| ALG Stock | USD 170.43 2.56 1.52% |
Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Alamo hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alamo Group from the perspective of Alamo response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alamo to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alamo because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Alamo after-hype prediction price | USD 168.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Alamo Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Alamo After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alamo at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alamo or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alamo, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alamo Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alamo's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alamo's historical news coverage. Alamo's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 166.87 and 169.81, respectively. We have considered Alamo's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alamo is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alamo Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alamo Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alamo is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alamo backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alamo, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 1.47 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
170.43 | 168.34 | 0.28 |
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Alamo Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of January Alamo Group is traded for 170.43. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.03. Alamo is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 168.34 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.28%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Alamo is about 790.32%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 170.40. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.63 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 115.93 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 404.6 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Alamo Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Alamo Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alamo's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alamo's future price movements. Getting to know how Alamo's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alamo may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PSIX | Power Solutions International | (0.19) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 7.68 | (8.26) | 29.92 | |
| EPAC | Enerpac Tool Group | (0.94) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.65 | (2.53) | 13.58 | |
| HUBG | Hub Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.53 | 0.14 | 4.43 | (2.72) | 10.93 | |
| REVG | Rev Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.46 | 0.09 | 3.53 | (3.67) | 14.08 | |
| TRN | Trinity Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.87 | (2.36) | 5.51 | |
| SBLK | Star Bulk Carriers | 0.06 | 8 per month | 1.81 | 0.01 | 2.73 | (2.41) | 8.00 | |
| UPWK | Upwork Inc | (0.79) | 10 per month | 3.05 | 0.03 | 7.03 | (5.07) | 20.70 | |
| AMRC | Ameresco | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.15 | (6.29) | 18.55 | |
| BWLP | BW LPG Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.37 | (3.90) | 8.94 | |
| FA | First Advantage Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.67 | (3.55) | 11.96 |
Alamo Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alamo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alamo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alamo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Alamo Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Alamo stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alamo Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alamo based on analysis of Alamo hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alamo's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alamo's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Alamo
The number of cover stories for Alamo depends on current market conditions and Alamo's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alamo is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alamo's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alamo Short Properties
Alamo's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alamo's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alamo Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alamo's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alamo's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 197.3 M |
Complementary Tools for Alamo Stock analysis
When running Alamo's price analysis, check to measure Alamo's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alamo is operating at the current time. Most of Alamo's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alamo's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alamo's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alamo to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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