Allegiant Travel Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for Allegiant Travel is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Allegiant Travel value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Allegiant Travel Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Allegiant Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 79.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.77, mean absolute percentage error of 4.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 107.91.

Allegiant Travel Stock Forecast Pattern

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Allegiant Travel Price Prediction

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Allegiant Travel Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allegiant Travel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allegiant Travel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Allegiant Travel. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Allegiant Travel. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Allegiant Travel

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allegiant Travel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 75.36 78.59 81.82 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 71.18 91.68 94.91 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 70.47 75.20 79.93 Details

12 Analysts Consensus Low Target High 92.55 101.70 112.89 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Allegiant Travel. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Allegiant Travel's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Allegiant Travel's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Allegiant Travel.

Other Forecasting Options for Allegiant Travel

For every potential investor in Allegiant, whether a beginner or expert, Allegiant Travel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allegiant Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allegiant. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allegiant Travel's price trends.

Allegiant Travel Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Allegiant Travel Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Allegiant Travel's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Allegiant Travel's current price.

Allegiant Travel Market Strength Events

Allegiant Travel Risk Indicators

Additional Tools for Allegiant Stock Analysis