Allegiant Travel Stock Forward View
| ALGT Stock | USD 114.79 15.37 15.46% |
Allegiant Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Allegiant Travel's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.84) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.2974 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.1459 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.288 | Wall Street Target Price 110.8182 |
Using Allegiant Travel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Allegiant Travel from the perspective of Allegiant Travel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Allegiant Travel using Allegiant Travel's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Allegiant using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Allegiant Travel's stock price.
Allegiant Travel Short Interest
An investor who is long Allegiant Travel may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Allegiant Travel and may potentially protect profits, hedge Allegiant Travel with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 64.8217 | Short Percent 0.1716 | Short Ratio 4.43 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.4 M | 50 Day MA 86.1388 |
Allegiant Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Allegiant Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 117.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.81 and the sum of the absolute errors of 174.34.Allegiant Travel Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Allegiant Travel's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Allegiant. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Allegiant can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Allegiant Travel. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Allegiant Travel's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Allegiant Travel.
Allegiant Travel Implied Volatility | 0.86 |
Allegiant Travel's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Allegiant Travel stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Allegiant Travel's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Allegiant Travel stock will not fluctuate a lot when Allegiant Travel's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Allegiant Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 117.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.81 and the sum of the absolute errors of 174.34. Allegiant Travel after-hype prediction price | USD 113.24 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Allegiant | Build AI portfolio with Allegiant Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Allegiant contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Allegiant Travel will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0538% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Allegiant Travel trading at USD 114.79, that is roughly USD 0.0617 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Allegiant Travel's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Allegiant Travel options at the current volatility level of 0.86%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Allegiant Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Allegiant Travel's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Allegiant Travel's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Allegiant Travel stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Allegiant Travel's open interest, investors have to compare it to Allegiant Travel's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Allegiant Travel is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Allegiant. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Allegiant Travel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Allegiant price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Allegiant using various technical indicators. When you analyze Allegiant charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Allegiant Travel's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2005-12-31 | Previous Quarter 316.2 M | Current Value 172.7 K | Quarterly Volatility 105.7 M |
Allegiant Travel Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Allegiant Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 117.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.81, mean absolute percentage error of 10.63, and the sum of the absolute errors of 174.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allegiant Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allegiant Travel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Allegiant Travel Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Allegiant Travel | Allegiant Travel Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Allegiant Travel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Allegiant Travel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allegiant Travel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 114.04 and 120.85, respectively. We have considered Allegiant Travel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allegiant Travel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allegiant Travel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.3122 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.8119 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0341 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 174.3357 |
Predictive Modules for Allegiant Travel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allegiant Travel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Allegiant Travel After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Allegiant Travel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Allegiant Travel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Allegiant Travel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Allegiant Travel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Allegiant Travel's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Allegiant Travel's historical news coverage. Allegiant Travel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 109.84 and 116.64, respectively. We have considered Allegiant Travel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Allegiant Travel is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Allegiant Travel is based on 3 months time horizon.
Allegiant Travel Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Allegiant Travel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Allegiant Travel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Allegiant Travel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.91 | 3.40 | 1.55 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
114.79 | 113.24 | 1.35 |
|
Allegiant Travel Hype Timeline
Allegiant Travel is presently traded for 114.79. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.55, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Allegiant is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 113.24. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 200.0%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.35%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.91%. The volatility of related hype on Allegiant Travel is about 21250.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 114.78. About 16.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.73. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Allegiant Travel recorded a loss per share of 2.48. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of May 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allegiant Travel to cross-verify your projections.Allegiant Travel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Allegiant Travel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Allegiant Travel's future price movements. Getting to know how Allegiant Travel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Allegiant Travel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UP | Wheels Up Experience | 0.13 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 11.94 | (13.58) | 61.04 | |
| BLDP | Ballard Power Systems | 0.04 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 4.87 | (5.96) | 16.87 | |
| ULCC | Frontier Group Holdings | 0.03 | 9 per month | 3.14 | 0.19 | 9.48 | (5.87) | 19.12 | |
| PRG | PROG Holdings | (0.15) | 10 per month | 1.35 | 0.12 | 3.84 | (2.25) | 8.53 | |
| HSII | Heidrick Struggles International | 0.06 | 8 per month | 0.30 | 0.07 | 0.90 | (1.41) | 19.72 | |
| CRAI | CRA International | (0.46) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.15 | (4.49) | 13.09 | |
| GRC | Gorman Rupp | 0.87 | 8 per month | 0.81 | 0.24 | 3.89 | (2.18) | 7.79 | |
| SLDP | Solid Power | 0.24 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.14 | (8.80) | 72.11 | |
| RDW | Redwire Corp | (0.78) | 9 per month | 6.75 | 0.09 | 14.09 | (10.92) | 41.83 | |
| JBLU | JetBlue Airways Corp | (0.14) | 9 per month | 2.47 | 0.18 | 6.98 | (4.09) | 14.92 |
Other Forecasting Options for Allegiant Travel
For every potential investor in Allegiant, whether a beginner or expert, Allegiant Travel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allegiant Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allegiant. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allegiant Travel's price trends.Allegiant Travel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allegiant Travel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allegiant Travel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allegiant Travel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Allegiant Travel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allegiant Travel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allegiant Travel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allegiant Travel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Allegiant Travel entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 226437.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.9372 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.15 | |||
| Day Median Price | 109.06 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 110.97 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 13.42 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 15.37 |
Allegiant Travel Risk Indicators
The analysis of Allegiant Travel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allegiant Travel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allegiant stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.98 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.62 | |||
| Variance | 21.35 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.37 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.09 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.83) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Allegiant Travel
The number of cover stories for Allegiant Travel depends on current market conditions and Allegiant Travel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Allegiant Travel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Allegiant Travel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Additional Tools for Allegiant Stock Analysis
When running Allegiant Travel's price analysis, check to measure Allegiant Travel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Allegiant Travel is operating at the current time. Most of Allegiant Travel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Allegiant Travel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Allegiant Travel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Allegiant Travel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.