Allegiant Travel Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ALGT Stock | USD 88.87 2.38 2.75% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Allegiant Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 90.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 165.24. Allegiant Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Allegiant Travel's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.84) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.4419 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.9153 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.3099 | Wall Street Target Price 99.4 |
Using Allegiant Travel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Allegiant Travel from the perspective of Allegiant Travel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Allegiant Travel using Allegiant Travel's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Allegiant using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Allegiant Travel's stock price.
Allegiant Travel Short Interest
An investor who is long Allegiant Travel may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Allegiant Travel and may potentially protect profits, hedge Allegiant Travel with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 61.5455 | Short Percent 0.1265 | Short Ratio 4.62 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.4 M | 50 Day MA 78.6648 |
Allegiant Travel Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Allegiant Travel's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Allegiant. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Allegiant can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Allegiant Travel. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Allegiant Travel's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Allegiant Travel.
Allegiant Travel Implied Volatility | 0.66 |
Allegiant Travel's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Allegiant Travel stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Allegiant Travel's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Allegiant Travel stock will not fluctuate a lot when Allegiant Travel's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Allegiant Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 90.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 165.24. Allegiant Travel after-hype prediction price | USD 89.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Allegiant Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Allegiant Travel's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Allegiant Travel's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Allegiant Travel stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Allegiant Travel's open interest, investors have to compare it to Allegiant Travel's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Allegiant Travel is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Allegiant. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Allegiant Travel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Allegiant price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Allegiant using various technical indicators. When you analyze Allegiant charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Allegiant Travel's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2005-12-31 | Previous Quarter 209.9 M | Current Value 316.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 104.8 M |
Allegiant Travel Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of January 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Allegiant Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 90.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.67, mean absolute percentage error of 10.90, and the sum of the absolute errors of 165.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allegiant Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allegiant Travel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Allegiant Travel Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Allegiant Travel | Allegiant Travel Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Allegiant Travel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Allegiant Travel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allegiant Travel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 85.79 and 94.42, respectively. We have considered Allegiant Travel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allegiant Travel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allegiant Travel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.3375 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.6652 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.036 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 165.2419 |
Predictive Modules for Allegiant Travel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allegiant Travel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Allegiant Travel
For every potential investor in Allegiant, whether a beginner or expert, Allegiant Travel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allegiant Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allegiant. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allegiant Travel's price trends.Allegiant Travel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allegiant Travel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allegiant Travel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allegiant Travel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Allegiant Travel Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Allegiant Travel's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Allegiant Travel's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Allegiant Travel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allegiant Travel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allegiant Travel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allegiant Travel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Allegiant Travel entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 21360.03 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.5805 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 88.08 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 88.34 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.98 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.38 |
Allegiant Travel Risk Indicators
The analysis of Allegiant Travel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allegiant Travel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allegiant stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.75 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.25 | |||
| Variance | 18.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.51 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Allegiant Stock Analysis
When running Allegiant Travel's price analysis, check to measure Allegiant Travel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Allegiant Travel is operating at the current time. Most of Allegiant Travel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Allegiant Travel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Allegiant Travel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Allegiant Travel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.