Alignment Healthcare Stock Forward View - 4 Period Moving Average
| ALHC Stock | USD 18.14 -0.16 -0.87% |
This 4 Period Moving Average projection for Alignment Healthcare is fitted to the equity's recent daily closes. Low error metrics relative to the price level indicate the model fits recent trading behavior well. Older observations carry less weight in the current projection as the price series extends. The 4 Period Moving Average model projects Alignment Healthcare at 18.46 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. This forecast is one analytical input among many and should be assessed in the context of broader analysis.
4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 8th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average model forecasts Alignment Healthcare at 18.46 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and sum of absolute errors of 40.89 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Alignment Healthcare's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alignment Healthcare | Alignment Healthcare Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Alignment Healthcare's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The forecast band spans 14.92 to 22.00. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the 4 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for Alignment Healthcare stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.5453 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0886 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.705 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0365 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 40.8875 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alignment Healthcare
Fibonacci retracement levels applied to Alignment Stock price swings identify potential support and resistance zones. Extreme price moves in Alignment occur more frequently than standard risk models assume. Support and resistance levels derived from Alignment Healthcare's historical data identify zones where buying or selling pressure has stalled moves.Alignment Healthcare Related Equities
Alignment Healthcare's market space within the Health Care space is illustrated by the firms listed below. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how Alignment Healthcare's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alignment Healthcare Market Strength Events
Rate of Change and Momentum readings for Alignment Healthcare measure the velocity of recent price moves rather than direction alone. These indicators add context to how recent sessions in Alignment Healthcare have behaved. These indicators are most informative when viewed alongside Alignment Healthcare's volume profile and volatility measures.
Alignment Healthcare Risk Indicators
Standard deviation and variance for Alignment Healthcare measure total price dispersion, while semi-deviation isolates only the downside moves. Higher variance relative to sector peers signals that Alignment Healthcare's price path has been less predictable over the measured period. Analyzing Alignment Healthcare's risk indicators helps explain how recent moves compare with its broader trading range.
| Mean Deviation | 2.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.53 | |||
| Variance | 12.48 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Alignment Healthcare Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Alignment Healthcare reveal whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. Comparing short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative provides a more grounded view.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 198.01 million | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 577.94 million |